29 October 2006

The Four Gauges on Our Dashboard

In earlier posts (here, here, here, here, and here), we have described the key financial statements and identified enough ratios drawn from the figures on these statements to make any analyst's head spin.  Each ratio, to one extent or another, helps us understand a corporation's financial strength or the value of its shares.  However, to make the results easier to grasp (i.e., avoid data overload), we concentrate on a subset of the ratios and we organize them in way that tells us how the company is doing in the various facets of its business.

We have done this by constructing a dashboard; but, first, we will relate an analogy.  In (American) football, a dashboard showing a team's performance might have gauges for offense, defense, and special teams. The dashboard might have a separate gauge showing the value of the franchise.  Each of these gauges would show a number, or score, that is based on multiple statistics.

Our financial dashboard has four gauges, one for each of the following categories:
  1. Cash Management
  2. Growth
  3. Profitability
  4. Value.

Each gauge score is based on a handful of the ratios and related metrics presented earlier.

We also combine the score of the four category gauges into an Overall score.

Let's be frank: some financial ratios are more important that others.  In addition, the four gauge categories listed above are not equally important to investors. To deal with these differences, we weight individual metrics based on their significance, and we weight the gauges themselves when computing the Overall score.

Later, we will explain that the weights reflect how closely we believe the metrics correlate with future stock price performance.




This post was last updated on 27 June 2009.

Valuation Metrics - Price

Valuation metrics help determine whether a company's shares are fairly priced in an absolute sense, relative to other companies, and relative to the historic norms for the company.

In an earlier article, we identified several "per-share" valuation metrics, such as Earnings per Share.  We will now mention a few other well-known valuation metrics.


Market Value or Market Capitalization

A company's Market Value is its current share price multiplied by the number of common shares outstanding.  Market Value is the metric used to classify companies as Small, Mid, or Large  Capitalization ("cap"). These categories aren't precise, but small-cap stocks generally have Market Values less than $1 billion, mid-cap stocks have Market Values less than $10 billion, and large-cap stocks have market values of many billions of dollars.


Trailing Price to Earnings (P/E)

Given the way investors and analysts sprinkle P/E values in their conversations and reports, one might think that all other metrics are superfluous.  Although it is certainly important, the P/E has to be handled with great caution.  It is calculated by dividing Market Value by Net Income, which is equivalent to the Share Price divided by the Earnings per Share.  The result is a dimensionless quantity ($/$) that can be 10 or less for slow-growth companies, 10 to 20 for the more typical company, and off the chart for fast burners.

Keep in mind that the "E" value of a P/E can be more arbitrary than you might first think.  Does it reflect GAAP Net Income, or have certain gains and losses been excluded (if so, which ones)?

On 30 September 2006, PepsiCo's share price had spiked up to $65.26.  It had earned $2.94 ($0.88 + $0.80 + $0.60 + $0.65) during the previous four quarters, so the trailing P/E on that basis was about 22.

A different perspective of the P/E ratio can be gained by looking at its inverse: the E/P or Earnings Yield.  Dividing the EPS by the share price indicates how much the company yielded in earnings for each invested dollar, not unlike a bond's income yield.  Of course, a company's earnings are variable, and an investor can't directly get his or her hands on the earnings yield.

PepsiCo's P/E of 22 in September 2006 translates into an E/P earnings yield of about 4.5 percent. The earnings yield for healthy companies is usually less than the income yield on high-grade securities because of the expectation that the earnings will grow over time.  Bond yields are generally fixed, which is not a bad thing, but it limits their upside.


Forward P/E

In the discussion above all "E" earnings values corresponded to the company's Net Income during the last, or "trailing," four quarters. Given an expectation for earnings growth, the P/E ratio is also calculated using the predicted earnings for the future or "forward" period. (We prefer to look at the next four quarters, but the next fiscal year is more commonly used.)  If earnings are increasing, the forward P/E ratio will be less than the trailing P/E ratio and a high share price will seem more reasonable.


P/E to Growth (PEG)

As mentioned above, the P/E ratio tends to reflect expectations that the company will earn more money in the future.  The PEG ratio, which at first seems rather odd, tries to get at this relationship.  It is calculated by dividing the P/E ratio by the expected earnings growth rate in percent.  If we take Pepsico's P/E ratio of 22 in September 2006 and divide it by the 11 percent increase in Net Income then predicted by professionals, Pepsico's PEG ratio would then have been 2.0.

Value investors prefer the PEG ratio to be closer to (or below) 1.0.


Price/Operating Income and Price/Cash Flow

Because Net Income can vary significantly due to one-time or non-operational factors, it can be insightful to substitute Operating Income, Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT), Cash Flow from Operations (CFO), Free Cash Flow (FCF), or some other measure for the "E" value of the P/E ratio.  Individual analysts have their own preferences.


Enterprise Value / Cash Flow

Similar to Price/Cash Flow, Enterprise Value / Cash Flow from Operations substitutes Enterprise Value for Market Value.  Enterprise Value (EV) is Market Value, plus Debt (long- and short-term), minus the company's Cash and Short-term Investments.  EV is considered a better estimate of the cost to a corporate acquirer than the Market Value because the acquirer is assuming the debt, less any cash on hand that can be used to pay off the debt.


Price/Book value

This ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by the Book Value per share (i.e., Stockholders' Equity divided by Shares Outstanding).


Price/Sales (Price/Revenues)

The Price-to-Sales Ratio (PSR) is calculated by dividing the share price by annual Sales (or Revenue) per share. It can also be found by dividing Market Value by annual Sales (or Revenue).  The PSR is most useful when comparing valuations of companies in the same industry.




This article was last modified on 26 April 2010.

28 October 2006

Valuation Metrics - Per Share numbers

The widely reported Earnings per Share values are determined by dividing Net Income, or some variant of Net Income, by the number of Common Shares Outstanding.  At the end of each quarter, companies often announce the EPS for that quarter and the EPS for the fiscal year to date.

We prefer a different EPS calculation.  We use the Net Income for the last four quarters, irrespective of fiscal year boundaries, to compute a trailing-year EPS.  This approach eliminates any seasonality factors that favor one quarter over another.

The EPS denominator can be a simple average of the number of common shares outstanding over the period of earnings, or the number of shares can be inflated (i.e., "diluted") to account for the future exercise of stock options and other instruments convertible into common shares.   When making EPS comparisons, it is important to stick to one approach.

It can also be insightful to track other financial parameters on a per-share basis. These parameters include Operating Income, Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT), Cash Flow from Operations (CFO), Free Cash Flow (FCF), Working Capital (i.e., Current Assets minus Current Liabilities), and Shareholders' Equity.

A few words about the last two terms.  Working Capital identifies net value of the company's most liquid assets, after paying the short-term bills.  If you can buy shares in a company for less than its Working Capital per share, you probably bought the company at a discount.

Shareholder's Equity is also called the Book Value.  So-called Value Investors look for an opportunity to buy shares at no more than a small premium to the Book Value per share. However, it is very important to understand that book value might be very different from market value. For example, capital assets will be valued based on depreciation schedules, not on what they might fetch at auction.


On our Income Statement tutorial, the fictional GCFR, Inc., had Earnings Per Share of $0.46 in the three months ending 30 June 2006, up from $0.41 in the same period of the previous year.  EPS, therefore, increased by about 12 percent.

GCFR, Inc., in the June 2006 quarter, had a Net Operating Profit After Taxes per share of

     [(6.7 + 0.1) * (1 - 0.345)] / 12 = $4.454 million

and 12 million shares outstanding, for a NOPAT/share of $0.37. In the year-earlier quarter, the figures were $3.96 million and 11.6 million shares, resulting in a NOPAT/share of $0.34.  The increase of this parameter was about 9 percent.

By switching to our Cash Flow Statement tutorial, we see that GCFR, Inc., had Cash Flow from Operations of $29.7 million in the 12 months ending 30 June 2006.  Since there were 12 million shares outstanding, CFO/share equaled $2.47.   In the previous year, CFO/share was about $1.91.

GCFR's Free Cash Flow during the twelve months that ended in June 2006 was $23.2 million, which was equivalent to $1.93 per share.  In the previous year, Free Cash Flow was $22.2 million - $15.8 million = $6.5 million, or $0.56 per share.

We can also look at various Balance Sheet metrics on per-share basis.

For example, GCFR had Working Capital of $75 - $41 = $34 million on 30 June 2006.  Working Capital per Share was $2.83.

Book Value per share was $134 million/12 =  $11.17.






Revised 3 October 2009

27 October 2006

Cash Flow Statement

Introduction to Cash Flow Statement

The Cash Flow Statement is the third of the principal accounting tables that form the numerical foundation of an organization's financial report.  Cash flow figures are believed to be harder for a company to manipulate than reported earnings.

Because nearly every transaction involves a transfer of Cash, the Cash Flow Statement can reveal a lot about the inner workings of the business.  Cash flow can even shed light on the quality of the company's earnings. 

Two examples of transaction that provide cash to the company are selling a product at a profit and taking out a bank loan.  Buying new equipment and repaying the loan are transactions that consume the company's cash. 

The Cash Flow Statement lists how much cash was provided to the company, or consumed by the company, during a specified full or partial year by the following categories of transactions:
  • Operations
  • Investing
  • Financing.
If, in the aggregate, more cash is provided to the company than it consumes, then the company's Cash on hand (shown on the Balance Sheet) will increase.  Conversely, when more cash is consumed than provided, the company's cash balance will decrease.



We use the fictional example below to illustrate the construction of the Cash Flow Statement and the information we learn from these statements.


GCFR, Inc. Twelve Months
 (in millions) Ended June 30
  2006 2005
Cash flow from operating activities:    
    Net income $20.1 $17.3
    Adjustments to reconcile net income to cash provided by operating activities:    
    Depreciation and amortization $4.0 $4.9
    Decrease in deferred income taxes ($6.4) ($9.8)
    Stock compensation expense $6.8 $11.6
    Undistributed earnings of affiliated companies ($4.8) ($4.4)
    Gain on sale of business $2.0 $3.6
    Other, net ($7.2) $11.8
Operating cash flow before change in working capital $14.5 $35.0
    Decrease / (Increase) in working capital $15.2 ($12.8)
Cash provided by (used in) operating activities $29.7 $22.2
     
Cash flow from investing activities:    
    Capital expenditures ($6.5) ($15.8)
    Acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired ($8.6)
($4.8)
Cash provided by (used in) investing activities ($15.1) ($20.6)
     
Cash flow from financing activities:    
    Increase in debt $12.0 $19.2
    Decrease in debt ($5.6) ($2.5)
    Dividends paid to shareholders ($8.0) ($7.0)
    Acquisition of treasury stock ($2.0) ($0.8)
    Shares issued under stock plans $0.4 $1.8
Cash provided by (used in) financing activities ($3.2) $10.7
     
Net increase in cash during the period $11.4 $12.4
    Cash, beginning of period $10.0 $8.0
    Cash, end of period $21.4 $20.4



Cash Flow from (used in) Operations
As can be seen in the table above, the company's Net Income (from the Income Statement) is the starting point for determining how much cash the company's business operations provided or consumed during a particular period.  Net Income has to be adjusted to account for Income Statement gains and expenses, such as depreciation and deferred taxes, that don't result in cash changing hands.  It also has to be adjusted to reflect changes in the company's Working Capital, which is Current Assets - Current Liabilities, because an increase in, say, Inventory or a decrease in Accounts Receivable is due to the movement of cash.

In the example above, Cash Flow from Operations at GCFR, Inc., increased from $22.2 million to $29.7 million.  A 34-percent CFO annual growth rate is very robust.



Cash Flow from (used in) Investing


Investing activities are often a net consumer of cash because most companies, but especially manufacturers, have to make recurring Capital Spending investments to expand and maintain Property, Plant, and Equipment.  Some companies also have cash Acquisition Expenses in certain years.

The sale of investments is a cash-providing activity.

When a company buys equipment that will be used for many years, the cost is booked immediately on the Cash Flow Statement as Capital Spending, but it is charged to operations on the Income Statement as depreciation in installments over the useful life of the equipment.  These installments reduce Net Income each quarter, but they do not result in additional cash flow.

In the example, GCFR invested $15.1 million in cash during the recent period.



Cash Flow from (used in) Financing

Finance activities provide cash when debt securities are issued, and they consume cash when dividends are paid or the company's shares are repurchased from investors.

In the example, GCFR used $3.2 million for financing activities in one year.  These activities provided $10.7 million cash in the previous year.


Net increase (decrease) in cash

In the example, operating activities provided cash of $29.7 million, investing activities consumed $15.1 million, and financing activities consumed $3.2 million.  As a result, GCFR Inc.'s cash balance increased by $11.4 million to $21.4 million.


Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow connects the operations and investing sections of the Cash Flow Statement.  FCF, in the sense we use it, is Cash Flow from Operations less Capital Spending. It indicates how much cash the company has left over after paying for the equipment needed to keep the company running.

GCFR, Inc., during the twelve months that ended in June 2006 had Cash Flow from Operations of $29.7 million.  In this period, capital spending was $6.5 million.  Therefore, the Free Cash Flow was $23.2 million.  In the previous year, Free Cash Flow was $22.2 million - $15.8 million = $6.5 million.


CFO/Revenue
GCFR, Inc., had Cash Flow from Operations of $29.7 million in fiscal 2006.  From the Income Statement, we see that it had Revenues of $198.1 million in the same year.

Therefore, CFO/Revenue was 15.0 percent.  During the previous year, the corresponding figures were $22.2 million, $170.0 million, and 13.1 percent.


FCF/Equity

This is a return on investment measure using FCF instead of Net Income.  With a FCF of $23.2 million, and Stockholders' Equity of $134 million, GCFR's FCF/Equity was 17.3 percent.  For the previous year, the values were $6.5 million, $107 million, and 6.1 percent.


FCF/Invested Capital

This is a broader return on investment measure because Invested Capital reflects the investment made in the company by Equity investors and lenders.

Invested Capital, as we define it, is Capitalization (Shareholders' Equity + Debt), less Cash and Short-term investments.  The subtraction is made because the liquid funds haven't been invested in the company's operations.  The components of Invested Capital can all be found on the company's Balance Sheet.

In our Balance Sheet tutorial, we showed that fictional GCFR Corp. had Invested Capital of

    $134 + ($60 + $9) - $10 - $11 = $182 million

on 30 June 2006. 

With a FCF of $23.2 million, FCF/Invested Capital =12.7 percent


Accrual Ratio

The Accrual Ratio subtracts FCF from Net Income, and divides the result by Total Assets. When FCF is greater than Net Income, the Accrual Ratio is negative, which is good. When Net Income is greater than FCF, it indicates that part of the income was the result of non-cash items (i.e., accruals). Earnings spiked by accruals are considered to be of a lower quality.
For GCFR, Inc., Net Income was $20.1 million and FCF was $23.2 million in fiscal 2006.  FCF exceeded Net Income by $3.1 million. Total Assets were $255 million at the end of the period. The Accrual Ratio was -1.2 percent of assets.




Note: This post was last updated on 23 June 2009.

25 October 2006

Income Statement

Introduction to the Income Statement

At its most basic level, the Income Statement lists a firm's Revenue, operating and other expenses, and how much money was left over in some currency during a specific period of time.  This simplicity makes the Income Statement the most intuitive of the accounting tables in a financial report.

The Income Statement typically covers a three-month fiscal quarter or a fiscal year.  To facilitate comparisons, a quarterly Income Statement will show, side by side, data for the designated quarter and for the year-earlier period.  Annual Income Statements will list results for two or three consecutive years.

The bottom-line figure, which is called either Net Income or Net Earnings, is expressed both in absolute terms (dollars, or another currency) and in an amount related the number of common shares the company has outstanding (dollars per share).

Earnings Per Share gets the most attention in the financial press.

Assumptions made by corporate management can have a great effect on the Income Statement's figures.  Earnings, which might appear to be the result of mere arithmetic, are more subjective that it might appear.

Revenue

The "top-line" of the Income Statement lists the company's Revenue, or Sales, during the quarter or year.  The notes accompanying the financial statements will indicate what rules the company followed to recognize a transaction as Revenue.  The rules will address questions such as: what if the company sells an item to wholesaler that can return the item if it is not bought by a consumer?  What if the company receives funds for a service or product it will deliver in the future.

Determining Revenue is more complicated than counting the cash in the till each day.


Operating Costs or Expenses and Operating Income

The next section of the Income Statement lists the expenses that can be tied, directly or indirectly, to the creation and sales of the company's products.

The Cost of Goods Sold (CGS) (a/k/a Cost of Revenues) includes the labor and material costs to create the company's products.  It is usually the largest Operating Expense.

Depreciation of the equipment and facilities used for company operations might be included in CGS, or it might be broken out separately.  This non-cash expense reflects decreasing value over time of the company's capital equipment.

Other typical operating expense categories are Research and Development (R&D); Sales (i.e., marketing), General and Administrative (SG&A); and non-recurring Special Operating Charges (less frequently Gains).  The markdown (or write-down) of the value of  Inventory is an example of a special charge.  This is one example of an Asset being recognized as impaired.

Operating Income is found by subtracting Operating Costs/Expenses from Revenue.


Non-Operating Income and Expense

Non-operating items might include categories such as Gains or Losses on Investments, Gains or Losses on Asset Sales, Net Interest Income or Expense, and the catchall miscellaneous category.

The company's Pre-tax Income, or Taxable Income, is determined by adding the Non-operating gains to, and subtracting the Non-operating losses from, Operating Income.

A provision for Income Taxes reduces Income to the bottom-line figure.


Net Income

Net Income is divided by the number of Common Shares Outstanding to compute the widely reported Earnings per Share (EPS). Sometimes non-recurring gains and losses are excluded from the EPS values one sees in the newspaper or on TV, so the analyst has to treat these values with extreme caution. 


Income Statement Example

While most Income Statements have the same general structure, they can differ substantially in the details.  The following is a fictitious example, which we use below to illustrate what can be learned from the Income Statement.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)

Quarter ending
30 June 2006
Quarter ending
30 June 2005
Year ending
30 June 2006
Year ending
30 June 2005
Revenue
52.243.9198.1170.0
Op expenses





CGS (39.1)(33.0)(149.1)(127.1)

Depreciation(1.0)(1.3)(4.0)(3.9)

R&D(2.1)(1.8)(8.2)(6.0)

SG&A (3.2)(1.7)(11.1)(7.1)

Other ("Special")(0.1)(0.2)(0.4)(0.8)
Operating Income
6.75.925.325.1
Other income





Gains on asset sales0.50.92.03.1

Gains on investments2.41.69.05.8

Net Interest and other income(1.2) (1.0)(4.1)(4.8)
Pretax income
8.47.432.229.2
Provisions for Income taxes
(2.9) (2.6)(12.1)(11.9)
Net Income before adjustments
5.54.820.117.3

Equity income less minority interests0.00.00.00.0

Discontinued operations and Accounting changes0.00.00.00.0
Net Income
5.54.820.117.3
Earnings per Share ($/sh)
$0.46/sh$0.41/sh$1.70/sh$1.51/sh
Shares outstanding (M)
12.0011.6011.8211.43



What Can be Learned from the Income Statement?

The Income Statement can reveal a lot about an organization's operations.  To gain those insights, financial analysts measure the rate of change for key Income Statement items, and they calculate various ratios using data from the Income Statement, other financial statements, and the supporting Notes

The importance of any particular ratio depends on the size, type, and condition of the company being evaluated.  Changes in the ratios over time are often more revealing than the values themselves.  It can also be useful to compare ratios for one company with other firms in the same industry. 

GCFR uses the ratios described below.


Revenue Growth

Changes in the company's Revenue can be characterized in various ways.  To eliminate seasonal factors, it is common to compare Revenue in one quarter to Revenue in the same quarter of the previous year.

Less widely used, sequential quarterly Revenue growth compares Revenue in the current quarter to Revenue in the immediately preceding quarter.

To smooth out the trend, we compare Revenue during the previous four quarters to Revenue during the prior four quarters.  We refer to this growth rate as "year-over-year" growth or "trailing 4-quarters."  Readers should be aware that there are alternative definitions for these terms.  The year in these calculations will coincide with the fiscal year only 25 percent of the time.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Revenue Growth
Quarters ending June 2006 and June 2005(52.2 - 43.9)/43.9 = 18.9%
Years ending June 2006 and June 2005(198.1 - 170.0)/170.0 = 16.5%


Operating Expenses/Revenue

The ratio of each Operating Expense item to Revenue shows what the company spent to realize each sales dollar.  We make these calculations for the current quarter and for the last four quarters.  If the company is able to achieve efficiencies of scale as it increases Revenue, costs as a percentage of Revenue will drop, and more of each sales dollar will reach the bottom line as earnings.

We subtract CGS/Revenue from 1 to determine the Gross Margin.   Alternatively, this can be expressed as (Revenue- CGS)/Revenue.  A high Gross Margin is preferred, as it indicates that the company can sell its goods and services for much more than the production cost.  We find it more useful to compare the Gross Margins from year to year, rather than from quarter to quarter because the data for shorter periods can be volatile.

For fictional GCFR Inc., using figures from the sample Income Statement above:

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Gross Margin
Quarter ending June 20061 - (39.1/52.2) = 25.1%
Quarter ending June 20051 - (33.0/43.9) =  24.8%
Year ending June 20061 - (149.1/198.1) = 24.7%
Year ending June 20051 - (127.1/170.0) = 25.2%


When the data is available, we separately calculate Depreciation/Revenue, R&D/Revenue, and SG&A/Revenue.  Depreciation is included in CGS for some firms, and some firms don't engage in R&D.

As was mentioned for Gross Margin, we prefer to compare the expense ratios from year to year, rather than from quarter to quarter.  Seemingly random variations in shorter periods can obscure the underlying trends and lead to erroneous conclusions.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Depreciation/RevenueR&D/RevenueSG&A/Revenue
Quarter ending June 20061.0/52.2 = 1.9%2.1/52.2 = 4.0%3.2/52.2 = 6.1%
Quarter ending June 20051.3/43.9 = 3.0%1.8/43.9 = 4.1%1.7/43.9 = 3.9%
Year ending June 20064.0/198.1 = 2.0%8.2/198.1 = 4.1%11.1/198.1 = 5.6%
Year ending June 20053.9/170.0 = 2.3%6.0/170.0 = 3.5%7.1/170.0 = 4.2%


Finally, the ratio of total Operating Expense to Revenue gives an indication of the company's overall profitability.


GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Operating Expense / Revenue
Quarter ending June 2006(39.1 + 1.0 + 2.1 + 3.2 + 0.1) / 52.2  = 87.2%
Quarter ending June 2005(33.0 + 1.3 + 1.8 + 1.7 + 0.2) /43.9 = 86.6 %
Year ending June 2006(149.1 + 4.0 + 8.2 +11.1 + 0.4) / 198.1 = 87.2%
Year ending June 2005(127.1 + 3.9 + 6.0 + 7.1 + 0.8) / 170.0 = 85.2%


Operating Income and Net Income Growth

Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year Income growth rates can be calculated in the same way as Revenue.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Operating Income GrowthNet Income Growth
Quarters ending June 2006 and June 2005(6.8 - 6.1) / 6.1 = 11.5%(5.5 - 4.8) / 4.8 = 14.6%
Years ending June 2006 and June 2005(25.3 - 25.1) / 25.1 = 0.8%(20.1 - 17.3) / 17.3 = 16.2%


Income Tax Rate

The ratio of Provisions for Income Taxes to the Income before Taxes should be checked to see if the tax rate has changed.  We've seen companies trumpet increased earnings that were due primarily to a change in the tax rate (and had nothing to do with the fundamental functioning of the business).  Because the quarterly data can be quite volatile, the annual tax rate is better suited for earnings models.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Income Tax Rate
Quarter ending June 20062.9/8.4 = 34.5%
Quarter ending June 20052.6/7.4 = 35.1%
Year ending June 200612.1/32.2 = 37.6%
Year ending June 200511.9/29.2 = 40.8%


Revenue/Assets

The ratio of Revenue during a quarter or year to Total Assets indicates how effectively and efficiently the company is employing its Assets to generate sales. The key is to look for changes: is the efficiency increasing or decreasing?

Total Assets is a figure listed on the Balance Sheet.  When making the Revenue/Assets calculation, the amount of Assets at the end of the period can be used.  However, a more representative calculation can be made by averaging the Asset values at the beginning and end of the period.  The difference between these two approaches is more significant for small, rapidly growing companies.

Note that Revenue/Assets for a quarter will be about 25 percent of Revenue/Assets for the year.  We multiply the quarterly result by 4 to make it more comparable with annual data.  However, this approach can produce misleading results if sales are highly seasonal.  In this case, an analyst would want to look at historical trends to determine the typical distribution of Revenue over the year.

Let's assume a series of Balance Sheets for fictional GCFR Inc. listed the following values for Total Assets:

DateTotal Assets ($M)
9/30/2004187.7
12/31/2004192.5
3/31/2005197.4
6/30/2005202.5
9/30/2005207.7
12/31/2005213.0
3/31/2006234.0
6/30/2006255.0


We compute Revenue/Assets as shown below:

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Revenue/Assets
Quarter ending June 20064*52.2/[0.5*(255.0+234.0)] = 85.4%
Quarter ending June 20054*43.9/[0.5*(202.5+197.4)] = 87.8%
Year ending June 2006198.1/[0.5*(255.0 +202.5)] = 86.6%


Operating Profit or Net Operating Profit after Taxes

Operating Profit is a variation of the Operating Income item on the Income Statement.  We calculate it by excluding unusual operating gains and losses from Operating Income and adjusting the remainder to reflect Income Taxes. 

     Operating Profit (a/k/a NOPAT) = (Operating Income + Special Charges) * (1 - Income Tax Rate)


Operating Profit differs from Net Income in that it excludes Non-Operating income and expenses, such as interest and investment returns.

At GCFR, we calculate and track Operating Profit's average annual growth rate over the last 16 quarters.  This growth rate should be less volatile than the Net Income growth rate because special items are excluded and the longer averaging time (16 vs. 4 quarters).


Net Operating Profit after Taxes/Revenue

NOPAT/Revenue is a good measure of the profitability of the company's core business.
It would be rare for us to compute this ratio with quarterly values, but we include quarter and annual NOPAT/Revenue values in the table below to show how the calculation would be made.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
NOPAT/Revenue
Quarter ending June 2006(6.7 + 0.1) * (1 - 0.345) / 52.2 = 8.5%
Quarter ending June 2005(5.9 + 0.2) * (1 - 0.351) / 43.9 = 9.0%
Year ending June 2006(25.3 + 0.4) * (1 - 0.376) / 198.1 = 8.1%
Year ending June 2005(25.1 + 0.8) * (1 - 0.408) / 170.0 = 9.0%


Net Income/Revenue

Net Income as a percentage of Revenues (a/k/a Net Margin) is a more complete measure of profitability, but it can be swayed by extraordinary non-operational changes.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Net Income/Revenue
Quarter ending June 20065.5/52.2 = 10.5%
Quarter ending June 20054.8/43.9 = 10.9%
Year ending June 200620.1/198.1 = 10.1%
Year ending June 200517.3/170.0 = 10.2%


Net income/Stockholders' Equity

This a basic return-on-investment ratio.  Stockholders have a right to expect that the company will make more for each dollar of investment than lower risk securities.

Stockholders' (or Shareholders') Equity is listed on the Balance Sheet.  When making the Net Income/Equity calculation, the Equity at the end of the period can be used.  However, a more representative calculation can be made by averaging the Equity values at the beginning and end of the period.  The difference between these two approaches is more significant for small, rapidly growing companies.

Note that Net Income/Equity for a quarter will be about 25 percent of Net Income/Equity for the year.  We multiply the quarterly result by 4 to make it more comparable with annual data.  However, this approach can produce misleading results if Net Income is highly seasonal.  In this case, an analyst would want to look at historical trends to determine the typical distribution of Net Income over the year.

Let's assume a series of Balance Sheets for fictional GCFR Inc. listed the following values for Stockholders Equity:

DateStockholders Equity ($M)
9/30/200494.3
12/31/200496.7
3/31/200599.2
6/30/2005101.7
9/30/2005104.3
12/31/2005107.0
3/31/2006120.5
6/30/2006134.0


We compute Net Income/Equity as shown below:

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Net Income/Equity
Quarter ending June 20064*5.5/[0.5*(134.0+120.5)] = 17.3%
Quarter ending June 20054*4.8/[0.5*(101.7+99.2)] = 19.1%
Year ending June 200620.1/[0.5*(134.0+101.7)] = 17.1%


Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

ROIC is a more subtle return-on-investment ratio that provides insight into how much the company earns on each dollar of capital provided by shareholders and lenders.  We use NOPAT for the last four quarters as the numerator, and Invested Capital, which we discussed in the Balance Sheet tutorial, as the denominator. 

From the NOPAT/Revenue discussion above, we can determine that the fictional GCFR Inc. had a 4-quarter NOPAT of (25.3 + 0.4) * (1 - 0.376) = $16.0 million as of 30 June 2006.

Invested Capital measures the investment, whether raised by stock sales or taking on debt, that is actually deployed (i.e., not sitting in the bank).  The definition for this term that we use is Stockholders' Equity, plus Short- and Long-Term Debt, minus Cash as the denominator.  These values are listed on the Balance Sheet.



GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
30 June 2006
Cash10
Short-term Investments11
Notes payable9
Long-term Debt60
Stockholders' Equity134

ROIC = 16 / (134 + 60 + 9 - 10 - 11) = 8.8%



Note: This post was originally published on 25 October 2006.  It was revised on 1 September 2008, 17 January 2009, 19 April 2009, 10 July 2010, and 4 August 2010.

23 October 2006

Balance Sheet

In this article, we introduce the Balance Sheet and its components.  We then pay special attention to Working Capital, Invested Capital, and Inventory because these terms are mentioned in many of our analyses.

We use a sample Balance Sheet to introduce some of the many ratios an analyst might want to calculate using Balance Sheet and other data from the financial statements.


Introduction to the Balance Sheet


The Balance Sheet is one of the principal accounting tables that form the numerical foundation of an organization's financial report.  It lists the calculated or estimated values, on a given day and in a given currency, for the organization's Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth (also known as Shareholders' Equity).  Typically, one column identifies these figures for the last day of the fiscal quarter or year and another column includes the same numbers for the last day of the previous fiscal year.  This arrangement makes it easy to see how each Balance Sheet item changed during the year.

By definition:

    Assets minus Liabilities equals Net Worth;

or, as it is usually expressed,

    AssetsLiabilities plus Net Worth.


Assets

The liquidity of an Asset is an indication of how quickly the item can be sold or exchanged for Cash.  When assessing an organization's finances and creditworthiness, it is useful to distinguish between those Assets that are relatively more liquid and those that are relatively less liquid.

The first category -- the more liquid assets -- are referred to as Current Assets.

Current Assets include Cash, Short-term Investments, Accounts Receivable, Inventory, and a few other items.  While one can be reasonably sure of a bank or money market account balance, valuing Receivables and Inventory is more difficult.  The sale of these items to a third party will not necessarily return the cash value listed on the Balance Sheet.

For reasons explained below, GCFR pays a lot of attention to Inventory figures for manufacturers and retailers.  We get less information from the Inventory figures, if any, for service companies. 

Non-Current Assets is the second of the two categories of Assets.  Non-Current Assets include relatively illiquid items such as Property, Plant, and Equipment, Long-term Investments, and Intangible Assets.


Liabilities

The Liabilities section of the Balance sheet is also arranged by the effect of the item on the organization's liquidity.

Current Liabilities, such as Accounts Payable, are obligations that must be paid in cash within a year or some other designated time in the near future.  Interest and tax payments due are other examples of Current Liabilities.

The most significant Non-Current Liability is usually Long-term Debt.


Net Worth (Shareholder's Equity)


Net Worth consists of the proceeds from stock sales plus Retained Earnings and certain adjustments.  Retained Earnings are the company's cumulative profits over its existence, less amounts paid out as dividends.

-------------------

Working Capital

Working Capital is the value of the liquid assets a company would have left after satisfying all its short-term obligations.  It is found by subtracting Current Liabilities from Current Assets.

Companies generally need to have enough liquid assets to pay their bills on time, keep the shelves and warehouses well stocked, and maintain an orderly flow of business.  The minimum amount of Working Capital for a given company depends on the size of the business and on the industry.  One would usually expect that companies in the same industry would have similar Working Capital/Revenue ratios.

Higher amounts of Working Capital can be evidence of a company's creditworthiness.  However, much more Working Capital than needed can be a sign that the company is not deploying its capital efficiently.  Capital unnecessarily tied up as low-yielding Working Capital is not necessarily a positive sign.  The company could be missing out on opportunities use its capital to make long-term investments that would ultimately benefit its shareholders more profitably.

If a weak company has negative Working Capital, it could be indicative of impending failure.  However, in a very strong company with rapid cash flows, low or negative Working Capital can signify extremely efficient use of cash.


Invested Capital

Companies finance their operations by selling common and preferred equity shares and by taking on debt.  The total amount raised and retained is the company's Capitalization.

We refer to Invested Capital as Capitalization less the amount held as Cash or Short-term investments.  The subtraction is made because these funds haven't been invested in the company's operations.

     Invested Capital = Shareholders' Equity + Debt - Cash - Short-Term Investment.


Please note that there are various other definitions of Invested Capital.

When assessing the efficiency and profitability of a company, we compare various aspects of its earnings and cash flow to the Invested Capital.


Inventory


Inventory consists of the raw materials, work in process, and unsold finished goods owned by a company.  There are many different ways to estimate the Inventory's value, and these alternatives can yield substantially different results.  Each company will disclose its valuation methods in the Notes to its financial statements.  A thorough analyst will realize that the Inventory value reported by a company is an estimate based on assumptions that might not reflect current conditions in the marketplace.  Unfortunately, analysts will rarely have enough information to recompute the Inventory value under a different set of assumptions.

An evaluation of how well a company is managing its Inventory can be very informative.  For example, a bloated Inventory indicates the company spent more than was really necessary to acquire or produce the Inventory.  In addition, depending on the product, older items in the Inventory can diminish in value as these items become more difficult or even impossible to sell.  While everyone knows that fresh foods have to be sold quickly or thrown away, the same principle can apply to other products.  Technology-based products and fashionable items, for example, tend to get supplanted by a new or improved version on a regular basis.

When a company recognizes that the worth of its Inventory has decreased, it has to write-down the value.  The amount written off, which can be very substantial, reduces the company's earnings and can turn a profitable quarter into a losing period.  When announcing a write-down charge, the company may try to diminish its significance by claiming it is a non-cash expense for accounting purposes only.  In fact, the cash was spent earlier and the write-down formally indicates that the expense was for naught.

Companies that keep their inventories lean should experience fewer and less severe write downs.

Big changes in the total Inventory level or in its Finished Goods component can be very significant.  If they increase, it hints that the company's products may have sold slower than management expected. In this case, the company might have to cut production or take back unsold goods from wholesalers. On the other hand, if Inventory is decreasing, it could suggest faster sales than expected or that the company has chosen to ramp up production in anticipation of future sales.

Other explanations are possible, so the careful analyst will consider whether seasonal factors, new product launches, changing commodity prices, or any of a host of other circumstances are driving the company's Inventory management.


-------------------------
Balance Sheet Example


There are as many forms of the Balance Sheet as there are companies.  Some are very detailed with many line items, and others condense the entries into a smaller number of items.  Nevertheless, most Balance Sheets follow a similar pattern. 

We concocted the example below to illustrate what can be learned from the Balance Sheet.


GCFR Corp., Inc.
(Millions of $)


30 June 2006
31 December 2005
Assets





Current assets:




Cash & equivalents$10
$8


Short-term investments$11
$9


Net accounts receivable (Accounts receivable - doubtful accounts)
$12
$10


Total inventories (Raw materials + Work in process inventories + Finished goods)$13
$11


Deferred tax assets$14
$12


Other current assets$15
$13


Total current assets
$75
$63

Non-current assets:





Property, plant, and equipment (Purchase cost - Accumulated depreciation)
$50
$40


Long-term investments$60
$50


Other assets$70
$60


Total non-current assets$180
$150

Total assets

$255
$213
Liabilities





Current Liabilities





Accounts payable
$6
$5


Accrued liabilities$7
$6


Deferred items$8
$7


Notes payable (ST debt)
$9
$8


Taxes payable$10
$9


Other current liabilities$1
$1


Total current liabilities$41
$36

Non-current liabilities:   




Long-term debt$60
$50


Deferred items$10
$10


Minority interest & other$10
$10


Total non-current liabilities$80
$70
Net worth (Stockholders' Equity)





Common and preferred stock (paid-in capital)

$40
38

Retained earnings
$100
75

Accumulated adjustments
$(6)
$(6)

Total stockholders' equity
$134
$107
Liabilities + Net worth


$255
$213



What Can be Learned from the Balance Sheet?


The Balance Sheet can reveal a lot about an organization's financial strength.  To evaluate that sturdiness, financial analysts compute ratios with data extracted from the Balance Sheet, other financial statements, and the supporting Notes.  These analysts look at how a set of ratios change over time and how the numbers compare with other companies in the same industry.

Analysts have invented a seemingly infinite number of ratios involving Balance Sheet data.  The importance of any one of these ratios to an evaluation depends on factors such as the size, type, and condition of the company.  For example, ratios indicating a company's creditworthiness are more useful to an examination of a small or struggling company than a healthy blue-chip firm.

GCFR uses the following ratios derived from Balance Sheet data:


Current Assets/Current Liabilities

This ratio, known as the Current Ratio, is one indication of how well a company is positioned to pay the bills that will come due during the next year.  It presupposes that the company can and will liquidate its Current Assets to make the required payments; managing cash flow is certainly more complicated.  Companies were once expected to keep their Current Ratio above 2.0, but lower values seem to be the norm these days.  We get concerned if the ratio falls below 1.5, decreases inexplicably, or rises above 4.0.  Why would a high Current Ratio be a concern?  It suggests that the company is tying up too much of its resources in short-term assets instead of long-term investments with greater earnings power.

In the example above, GCFR Corp.'s Current Ratio was 75/41 = 1.83 in June, up from 63/36 = 1.75 the previous December.


Liquid Assets/Current Liabilities

This "Acid Test" ratio

    (Cash + Short-term Investments + Accounts Receivable, net) / Current Liabilities

is similar to the Current Ratio; the difference is that the numerator is limited to the most liquid Current Assets.  Since it covers fewer assets, the Acid Test ratio will always be lower than the Current Ratio at a given time.  We rest easier when the Acid Test is greater than 1.0.

The mythical GCFR Corp.'s Acid Test Ratio was (10+11+12)/41 = 0.80 in June and (8+9+10)/36 = 0.75 six months earlier.


Cash/Total Assets

The Cash-to-Assets Ratio

    (Cash & Cash equivalents + Short-term Investments) / Assets

is normally expressed as a percentage.

For GCFR Corp., the ratio increased to (10+11)/255 = 8.24% from (8+9)/213 = 8.0%.


Working Capital/Revenue

We mentioned this ratio above as measure of whether a company has too much or too little Working Capital.  The company should have enough Working Capital, relative to its Revenue, to ensure the smooth running of the business.  The amount of Working Capital that is "enough" is usually different for different industries.

Low Working Capital could be a sign the company will have trouble paying its bills; however, if that's not the case, it might actually demonstrate the company's efficient use of cash.

A company with excessive Working Capital won't have problems with creditors, but its shareholder might suffer low returns because capital isn't being used efficiently.


Working Capital / Market Capitalization

We learned about this ratio, expressed as percentage, from the Motley Fool.

    Working Capital / Market Capitalization
= (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) / (Market Value + Debt)
= (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) / [(Shares Outstanding * Share Price) + (Long-term Debt + Short-term Debt)]

Market Capitalization, since it includes Debt, approximates the cost of acquiring the company.  Higher values of Working Capital, as a percentage of this acquisition cost, would presumably make the company more attractive to an acquirer.

The number of common shares outstanding may be found on the Balance Sheet or a supplemental table.  We use the average value that is denominator of Earnings per Share.

GCFR Corp. had a Working Capital of $75 - $41 = $34 million on 30 June 2006.  If it had 12 million shares outstanding, and if these shares were selling for $4.17 each on 30 June 2006, its Market Value on that date equaled $50 million.  We add $9 million of Short-term debt and $60 million of Long-term Debt to the Market Value to find that the Market Capitalization was $119 million.  Therefore, the ratio of Working Capital to Market Capitalization was 34/119 = 28.6 percent.


Working Capital/Invested Capital


= (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) / (Shareholders' Equity + Debt - Cash - Short-Term Investment)


Note that the denominator is the Invested Capital defined above.


GCFR Corp. had a Working Capital of $75 - $41 = $34 million on 30 June 2006. 

Its Invested Capital on that date was $134 + ($60 + $9) - $10 - $11 = $182 million. 

Therefore, the ratio of Working Capital to Invested Capital is 34/182 = 18.7 percent.


Long-Term Debt/Stockholders' Equity

This ratio is one way to measure the extent to which a company is financially leveraged.  If the ratio is too high (e.g., close to, or over, 100 percent), hefty interest payments could become burdensome if business conditions worsen.

This ratio for GCFR Corp. was 60/134 = 44.8 percent in June and 50/107 = 46.7 percent six months earlier


Net Debt Ratio

This Debt measurement includes an adjustment for the cash on hand to pay off the debt

    (Total Debt - Cash and Equivalents) / Assets
= [(Long-term Debt + Short-term Debt) - (Cash + Short-term Investments)] / Assets

For GCFR Corp., the Net Debt Ratio was [(60+9)-(10+11)]/255 = 18.8 percent in June.



Debt/Cash Flow from Operations

The ratio gives a different view of the leverage implied by the company's financial structure. It indicates how many months or years of incoming Cash Flow are required to pay off the company's Short-term and Long-term Debt.

GCFR Corp's total debt was $60 + $9 = $69 million on 30 June 2006.  If we assume its Cash Flow from Operations (found on the Statement of Cash Flows) was $25 million in the first six months of 2006, then 69/(25/6) = 16.6 months of Cash Flow to cover the existing debt.


Inventory/Cost of Goods Sold

This ratio is one that can shed light on how well the company is managing its Inventory. For reasons explained above, GCFR pays a lot of attention to Inventory figures for manufacturers and retailers.  We get less information from the Inventory figures, if any, for service companies. 

The Balance Sheet, as described above, lists an estimated value of the company's inventory.  The value is in dollars, as assumed here, or another currency.  With the Inventory/CGS ratio, we have a way to express Inventory in terms of a number of days.

Cost of Goods Sold (CGS) (a/k/a Cost of Revenue), found on the Income Statement, is how much the company spent, over a given period of time, to acquire and fabricate the items it sold during that period.  Dividing the expense by the number of days in the periods results in a cost per day. Dividing the Inventory value in dollars by the dollar cost per day yields an Inventory level in days.

In other words, it measures how many days of expenses are represented by the current Inventory. Clearly, lower values are better.

When making these calculations, it is best to use the average Inventory value over the period represented by the Cost of Goods Sold.

GCFR's sample Income Statement for the second quarter of 2006 shows a Cost of Good Sold of $39.1 million.  We divide $39.1 by the quarter's 91 days to get a CGS of $0.43 million per day.  The sample Balance Sheet above lists GCFR's Inventory value on 30 June 2006 at $13 million.  Let's further assume that the Inventory value at the beginning of the quarter was $12 million, resulting in an average Inventory value over the quarter of $12.5 million.

With these figures, the Inventory/CGS ratio would equal

    $12.5 million / $0.43 million/day  = 29 days.


Inventory/Revenue (days)

This ratio is almost identical to the previous figure, except that Revenue per day, instead of CGS per day, is used to compute how many days worth of Inventory are held. This effectively relates the Inventory to its value at retail prices.

GCFR's sample Income Statement for the second quarter of 2006 shows Revenue of $52.2 million.  We divide $52.2 by the quarter's 91 days to get Revenue of $0.574 million per day.  Therefore, the Inventory/Revenue ratio equals

    $12.5 million / $0.574 million/day = 21.8 days.


Finished Goods/Inventory

This is the last ratio attempting to shed light on how well the company is managing its Inventory. For reasons explained above, GCFR pays a lot of attention to Inventory figures for manufacturers and retailers.  We get less information from the Inventory figures, if any, for service companies. 

We're now focused on the finished goods percentage of the total Inventory.  As mentioned above, declines in the percentage can be a positive development for the company.

Of GCFR Corp.'s $13 million Inventory on 30 June 2006, let's assume $3 million was raw material, $4 million was work in process, and $6 was finished goods.  Therefore, 6/13 = 46 percent of the total Inventory was composed of finished goods.


Accounts Receivable/Revenue
[Days of Sales Outstanding]

In this ratio, we take the Accounts Receivable, net value from the Current Assets section of the Balance Sheet and divide it by the Revenue per day derived from the Income Statement. The result indicates whether other parties are quick or slow to pay their bills to the company. Rapid collection is a sign of efficiency because the payments received can be re-invested sooner.

Slow collections can be a real risk for a small company, especially one that does business with unreliable partners.

GCFR Corp. had $12 million of Receivables on 30 June 2006.  We assumed above that GCFR's Revenue, from the Income Statement, in the second quarter of 2006 was $52.2 million (Revenue per day = $0.574 million). Therefore, the ratio of Receivables/Revenue =  12/0.574 = 20.9 days (of sales outstanding)

To be more precise, the average Accounts Receivable over the given period should be used.


Accounts Payable/Cost of Goods Sold (days)
[Days of Payables Outstanding]

In this ratio, we take the Accounts Payable value from the Current liabilities section of the Balance Sheet and divide it by the CGS per day derived from the Income Statement.

For fictional GCFR Corp., the ratio on 30 June 2006 equaled $6 million/($39.1 million/91 days) = 14.0 days.

An alternative for the numerator is the average Accounts Payable over the measurement period (e.g., a quarter or year) for the CGS. An alternative for the denominator is to add the increase in Inventories to the CGS.

The result indicates how long the company waits on average before paying for purchases. It can be interesting to compare the value of this ratio with the value for Accounts Receivable/Revenue to see the relative leverage among the company, its customers, and its suppliers in holding on to Working Capital.


Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) Time

This one is a little complicated, but it is well explained in an Investopedia article by David Harper.  The key point is that Short CCC times indicate that the company is using its Working Capital efficiently.

The CCC Time, in days, 
= Days of Inventory plus Days of Sales Outstanding, minus Days of Payables Outstanding.
= [Inventory/(CGS/day)] + [Accounts Receivable, net/(Revenue/day)] - [Accounts Payable/(CGS/day)]

Note that the first two terms indicate how long the company ties up Working Capital for Inventory and Sales for which it hasn't yet been paid. The subtracted term represents how long the company can preserve its Working Capital by deferring bill payments.

For GCFR Corp., using the made-up numbers above, the CCC Time as of June 2006 was 29 days + 20.9 days - 14.0 days = 35.9 days.



This article was last modified on 30 December 2009.