09 May 2010

MSFT: Financial Gauge Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) earned $0.45 per diluted share in fiscal 2010's third quarter.  Microsoft made $0.12 more per share, 36 percent, than the $0.33 it earned in the March 2009 quarter.

In our earlier review of Microsoft's Income Statement, we compared the actual results to our "look-ahead" estimates.

We have now updated the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.  This post reports on the metrics for Microsoft and the associated financial gauge scores.  The metrics were calculated using data from Microsoft's current and historical financial statements, including the latest 10-Q report.

Microsoft is best known for operating system and application software, but the company also sells video game consoles, music players, and computer peripherals.  Additional background information about Microsoft and the business environment in which it is now operating can be found in the look-ahead.

In summary, Microsoft's latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:


The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary.  Readers are encouraged to verify these figures and calculate others as they see fit using the filings available at the SEC's web site and elsewhere.

08 May 2010

EIX: Income Statement Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

Edison International (NYSE: EIX) earned $0.72 per diluted share on a GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2010, which ended on 31 March 2010.  Edison made $0.04 less per share than the $0.76 it earned in 2009's first quarter. 

The latest quarter included a non-cash $39 million charge ($0.12 per share) to address a change in the federal taxation of retiree benefits, which was a provision of the recently enacted health-care legislation.  Excluding this and other special items, Edison's "Core" earnings, a non-GAAP measure, rose from $0.79 to $0.82 per share.  Core earnings exclude results from discontinued operations and other items that do not affect the company's long-term profitability. 

This post examines Edison's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Reported earnings equaled the $0.72 per share we had forecast.

The principal sources for this income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, the 10-Q, the conference call presentation, and the call transcript. The latter is made available by SeekingAlpha.

In a second article, we will report Edison's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges. The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.


Edison International is the parent of Southern California Edison and Edison Mission Group.  SCE is a regulated utility that generates and acquires electricity and delivers it to customers in parts of Southern California.  Edison Mission Energy owns, or has interests in, various independent power-generation facilities.  Additional background information about Edison International and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.

Please click here to see a full-sized, normalized depiction of the actual and projected results for the just-concluded quarter, as well as the quarterly Income Statements for the last couple of years.  Please note that our organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which we use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

07 May 2010

INTC: Financial Gauge Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) earned $0.43 per diluted share in the first quarter of fiscal 2010.  Intel's income was nearly four times the $0.11 per share it made in 2009's first quarter.

In our earlier review of Intel's Income Statement, we compared the actual results to our "look-ahead" estimates

We have now updated the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.  This post reports on the metrics for Intel and the associated financial gauge scores.  The metrics were calculated using data from Intel's current and historical financial statements, including the latest 10-Q.


Intel is the foremost manufacturer of integrated circuits for computers, servers, hand-held devices, and communication products.  Additional background information about Intel and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.

In summary, Intel's latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:
The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary.

06 May 2010

KG: Income Statement Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

King Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: KG) earned $0.02 per diluted share on a GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2010, which ended 31 March.  In the year-earlier quarter, various restructuring charges related to the Alpharma acquisition contributed to King losing $0.04 per share.

Non-GAAP "adjusted" earnings fell from $0.26 to $0.14 per share. A $41 million pretax charge for the amortization of intangible assets was the most substantial item excluded from the adjusted results in the latest quarter.

This post examines King's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Our $0.18 per share earnings projection was $0.16 more than the reported amount, and it was $0.04 greater than Adjusted earnings.

The principal sources for this income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, the conference call transcript (made available by Seeking Alpha), and the formal 10-Q report.

In a second article, we will report King's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges.  The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.


King Pharmaceuticals, headquartered in Bristol, TN, manufactures and sells various brand-name prescription pharmaceuticals and other products.  The acquisition of Alpharma, in a $1.6 billion deal completed in December 2008, added new painkilling medicines with significant sales potential and animal health products.  Additional background information about King and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.

Please click here to see a full-sized, normalized depiction of the actual and projected results for the just-concluded quarter, as well as the quarterly Income Statements for the last couple of years.  Please note that our organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which we use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.




Revenue of $381 million in the first quarter of 2010 was 11 percent less than Revenue of $429 million in the same quarter of last year.  Total Revenue was 14 percent less than the $444 million we had expected. 

Sales of branded prescription pharmaceuticals, the company's largest business, fell 13 percent from the first quarter of 2009.  Only the Animal Health business, of King's four reporting business segments, achieved a Revenue increase in the latest quarter when compared to the same quarter of 2009. King recently decided to retain this business, which came with Alpharma.


Business Segment Revenue ($M)1Q-20101Q-2009Change
Branded prescription pharmaceuticals $241.5 $277.7   -13%
Animal Health 81.3 79.8   +2%
Meridian Auto-Injector 49.8 56.6   -12%
Royalties and other 8.6 16.1   -46%
Eliminations (0.5) (1.2) NA
Total Revenue
$380.9 $429.1   -11%


Revenue is also reported separately for each of King's major Branded prescription pharmaceutical products, as listed below.

Sales of Skelaxin®, the company's biggest product, are expected to "decrease significantly" in the remainder of 2010 because generic versions from Sandoz (part of Novartis) and CorePharma recently became available. //Update//On 7 May 2010, the Associated Press reported that King had received a preliminary injunction that would limit or delay the availability of generic versions of Skelaxin®.  We have not seen a formal statement from King on the significance of the injunction."//  Thrombin-JMI®, another important product, is losing ground to competitors.


Branded Prescription Pharma Revenue ($M) 1Q-2010  1Q-2009  Change 
Skelaxin® $90.9 $100.6 -10%
Thrombin-JMI® 36.9 47.3 -22%
Flector® Patch 33.5 16.8 +100%
Avinza® 23.2 39.0 -40%
Embeda® 9.1 0NA
Levoxyl® 15.4 19.6 -22%
Other 32.5 54.4 -40%
Total Segment Revenue $241.5 $277.7 -13%


King is optimistic about EMBEDA™, which it began selling in September 2009.  This opioid is for management of moderate to severe pain under certain conditions.  King reported Embeda is achieving volume and market share growth.  The FDA had objected to claims made in some of the marketing information used in conjuction with the product's launch.  King revised its marketing materials and implemented other corrective actions that apparently satisfied the FDS.

The doubling of Flector® Patch revenue is partially due to depressed sales in the earlier period when wholesale inventories were adjusted after the Alpharma acquisition.  King expressed some disappointment with Flector's sales, which it attributed to time spent on Embeda marketing.

The Cost of Goods Sold (CGS) -- "Cost of Revenues" on King's Income Statement -- was $127 million, or 33.4 of Revenue.  This equates to a Gross Margin of 66.6 percent, which is 320 basis points less profitable than the 69.8-percent margin last year.  The decline in the Gross Margin might be due to lower Revenue, changes in the product mix, competitive pressures, Embeda launch costs, and increased royalty payments related to Skelaxin.

The latest Gross Margin was 90 basis points less than our 67.5-percent target for the quarter.

The Depreciation (including Intangible Amortization, and Accelerated Depreciation) expense of $57 million was 7 percent more than last year's $53 million.  As a percentage of Revenue, this expense increased from 12.4 percent to 15.0 percent.

The latest Depreciation expense was $24 million more than our $33 million estimate, which was based on the company's guidance for the year.

Research and Development expenses were relatively unchanged, rising from $27 million to $28 million. We had estimated $26 million.

Sales, General, and Administrative expenses, exclusive of special charges, were also nearly unchanged at $140 million.  We expected $142 million, 1 percent more than the actual amount.

The SGA& expense increased from 32.3 percent to 36.9 percent of Revenue.

King often records "special" non-recurring operating charges, but the amounts in the latest quarter were immaterial.  The year-earlier quarter included acquisition-related and restructuring charges totaling $70 million.

Subtracting the various operating expenses from Revenue yields Operating Income of $27 million, compared to only $7 million in the year-earlier quarter.  Non-GAAP Operating Income fell from $119.7 million to $70.8 million.  Both figures for Operating Income were substantially less than our $89 million target, primarily because of lower-than-expected Revenue and higher-than-expected Depreciation.

A net Non-Operating expense of $9 million was down considerably from last year's $24 million.  The latest amount was also less than the $15 million we had estimated.  Interest Expense was the item in the Non-Operating category that changed the most, from $23 million to less than $9 million.

The effective Income Tax Rate was an extraordinary 75 percent, adding insult to injury.  We had expected a 38 percent tax rate. 

King stated that the tax rate was higher than normal because of "losses on foreign subsidiaries with no tax benefit, stock compensation and state taxes."


Bottom-line Net Income flipped from an $11 million ($0.04 per share) loss in 2009's first quarter to a tiny $4 million ($0.02 per share) gain in the latest quarter.  On a non-GAAP basis, Net Income declined from $64 million ($0.26 per share) to $35.7 million ($0.15 per share).

Neither formulation of Net Income reached our target of $46 million ($0.18 per share).





Full disclosure: Long KG at time of writing.

04 May 2010

PRGN: Income Statement Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

Paragon Shipping, Inc., (NYSE: PRGN) earned $0.185 per share, on a GAAP basis, in the first quarter of 2010.  This amount is 74 percent less than the $0.71 per share Paragon made in 2009's first quarter. 

Adjusted Net Income, a non-GAAP measure that excludes various non-cash items, fell from $14.7 million to $8.1 million.  Adjusted earnings per share dropped from $0.54 to $0.16.

An 83-percent increase in the weighted average number of diluted Class A common shares steepened the EPS decline.  The share-count rise resulted from 2009's equity offerings.


This post reviews Paragon's Income Statement for the quarter.  We did not issue any estimates in advance of the actual results being released.  The principal sources for the analysis were the earnings announcement and the conference call presentation [pdf].

In a second article, we will provide updated figures for the financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.

Paragon Shipping owns and charters ships that carry dry bulk cargoes.  The company is headquartered in Greece and has been operating since December 2006.  Paragon generally seeks to secure one-to-five year, fixed-rate charters for its vessels; this strategy dampens the effect of industry volatility on the company.  In 2010, charter arrangements have been made for all vessels throughout the year.

Please click here to see a full-sized, normalized depiction of the actual results for the just-concluded quarter, as well as the quarterly Income Statements for the last couple of years.  Please note that our organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which we use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

03 May 2010

NOK: Financial Gauge Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) earned 0.09 per diluted share, in accordance with IFRS, in the first quarter of 2010.  IFRS earnings tripled the €0.03 made in 2009's first quarter.  On an non-IFRS basis, Nokia's earnings per share increased from €0.10 to €0.14.

In our earlier review of Nokia's Income Statement, we compared the actual results to our "look-ahead" estimates

We have now updated the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.  This post reports on the metrics for Nokia and the associated financial gauge scores.  The metrics were calculated using data from Nokia's current and historical financial statements.


Headquartered in Espoo, Finland, Nokia shipped 432 million mobile phones in 2009.  The company's hand-held product line runs the gamut from modest entry-level devices to high-end smartphones.   Nokia also sells network infrastructure.  Additional background information about Nokia and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the beginning of the look-ahead.

In summary, Nokia's latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:

The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary.

30 April 2010

CSCO: Look Ahead to April 2010 Quarterly Results

This post describes our model of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) Income Statement for fiscal 2010's third quarter, which ended on 1 May.   This quarter includes a rare 14th week.

The purpose of the model is to establish a baseline for identifying surprises, positive or negative, in the quarterly results the company will report on 12 May.  Estimates for each line of the Income Statement are derived from management's guidance, the company's historical financial results, and other publicly available data.

We begin by reviewing background information about Cisco and the business environment in which it is currently operating.

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), the proud plumber of the Internet, has a dominant role in markets for enterprise networking products and services.  Cisco categorizes its products as routers, switches, and advanced technologies.

Earnings fell 24 percent in fiscal 2009, which ended last July, from $8.05 billion to $6.13 billion.  Revenue declined 8.7 percent, from $39.5 billion to $36.1 billion.  Services provided 19 percent of total Revenue in 2009.

COP: Income Statement Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) earned $1.40 per diluted share, on a GAAP basis, in the first quarter of 2010, which ended 31 March.  Earnings per share were 2.6 times the (restated) $0.54 ConocoPhillips made in the March 2009 quarter.

Adjusted earnings per share were $1.47 in the latest quarter.  This figure excludes $110 million of after-tax charges related to ConocoPhillips' withdrawal from the Shah gas project in Abu Dhabi and the Yanbu refinery project in Saudi Arabia.

This post examines ConocoPhillips' Income Statement for the latest quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Reported earnings fell $0.01 short of the $1.41 per share we had forecast, but the results would have surpassed our estimate if there had not been special charges.


The principal sources for this income statement analysis were the earnings announcement and the conference call presentation [pdf] and transcript -- the latter is made available by Seeking Alpha.

In a second article, we will report Conoco's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges.  The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.


ConocoPhillips is a large Integrated Oil and Gas company with global reach.  Its market capitalization is now approaching $90 billion, and its Revenue was almost $150 billion in 2009.  The company was formed in 2002 when Conoco, Inc., merged with Phillips Petroleum.  Additional background information about ConocoPhillips and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.


Please click here to see a full-sized, normalized depiction of the actual and projected results for the just-concluded quarter, as well as the quarterly Income Statements for the last couple of years.  Please note that our organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which we use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.
Beginning with the first quarter of 2010, Conoco changed how it accounts for its investment in Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY).  Instead of a quarterly estimate of equity earnings, Conoco now records Lukoil's actual results with a one-quarter lag.  Conoco's financial statements for each quarter in 2009 were revised to conform to the current set of accounting principles, and we have made the necessary adjustments to our spreadsheet.

29 April 2010

PG: Income Statement Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) earned $0.83 per diluted share in the third quarter of fiscal 2010, which ended 31 March.  Earnings per share were $0.01 less than the $0.84 P&G made in the March 2009 quarter. 

Earnings from continuing operations increased from $0.78 to $0.83 per diluted share.  Core EPS, a non-GAAP measure, rose from $0.81 to $0.89.

This post examines P&G's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Reported earnings fell $0.04 short of the $0.87 per share we had forecast, mainly because of a one-time tax item.

Our principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement and the conference call.

In a second article, we will report P&G's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges.  The follow-up post will provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.

Procter & Gamble, which traces its roots back to 1837, sells well-known personal and household products to consumers worldwide from its Cincinnati headquarters.  Additional background information about P&G and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the beginning of the look-ahead

Please click here  to see a full-sized, normalized depiction of the actual and projected results for the just-concluded quarter, as well as restated quarterly Income Statements for the last couple of years.  After selling its pharmaceuticals business to Warner Chilcott (NASDAQ: WCRX), P&G restated some historical financial statements to depict the pharmaceutical results as a discontinued operation.

Also note that our organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which we use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

28 April 2010

BP: Income Statement Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

BP (NYSE: BP) earned $1.92 per diluted ADS in the first quarter of 2010, which ended 31 March.  The profit attributable to BP's shareholders more than doubled the $0.81 earned in 2009's first quarter.

This post examines BP's Income Statement for the latest quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Reported earnings exceeded the $1.58 per share we had forecast by $0.34, about 22 percent.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, the financial statements (parts one and two), and the conference call presentation [pdf].

In a second article, we will report BP's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges. The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, GrowthProfitability and Value.


BP p.l.c., the former British Petroleum, is one of the largest Integrated Oil and Gas firms in the world.  It has a market capitalization over $170 billion, and its Revenue was almost $240 billion in 2009.  
Additional background information about BP and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.

Please click here to see a full-sized, normalized depiction of the actual and projected results for the just-concluded quarter, as well as the quarterly Income Statements for the last couple of years.  Please note that our organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which we use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

27 April 2010

ADP: Income Statement Analysis for the March 2010 Quarter

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP) earned $0.80 per share in the third quarter of fiscal 2010, which ended 31 March 2010.  Earnings per share were unchanged from the March 2009 quarter.

Earnings from continuing operations were slightly less than the comparable result in the year-earlier quarter, but overall net earnings were a shade higher.

This post examines ADP's Income Statement for the latest quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Reported earnings exceeded the $0.76 per share we had forecast by $0.04.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, the webcast presentation [pdf], and the transcript (available from Seeking Alpha).

In a second article, we will report ADP's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges.  The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.


Automatic Data Processing performs payroll, tax, and other personnel-related Business Services for over 500,000 clients, large and small.  ADP pays one of every six private sector employees in the United States.  Additional background information about ADP and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.


Please click here to see a full-sized, normalized depiction of the actual and projected results for the just-concluded quarter, as well as the quarterly Income Statements for the last couple of years.  Please note that our organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which we use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

26 April 2010

HD: Look Ahead to April 2010 Quarterly Results

This post describes our model of Home Depot's (NYSE: HD) Income Statement for fiscal 2010's first quarter, which will end on 2 May.

The purpose of the model is to establish a baseline for identifying surprises, positive or negative, in the quarterly results the company will report in mid May.  Estimates for each line of the Income Statement are derived from management's guidance, the company's historical financial results, and other publicly available data.

We begin by reviewing background information about Home Depot and the business environment in which it is currently operating.


The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) is the largest retailer of do-it-yourself merchandise, which includes building materials, home improvement supplies, and lawn and garden products.  It has a market capitalization of about $60 billion.  The company operated 2,244 retail stores at last count, of which 1,976 (88 percent) were in U.S. states or territories.

Home Depot earned nearly $2.7 billion in fiscal 2009, which ended on 31 January 2010, nearly 18 percent more than in 2008.  Revenue slipped 7 percent to $66.2 billion.