The sale of equity investments in Syncrude and CFJ Properties boosted earnings in the most recent quarter. Adjusted earnings, which exclude several special items, were $1.67 per share.
A previous article examined Conoco's Income Statement for the June quarter. Reported and adjusted earnings both surpassed our $1.54 estimate.
We have now updated the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value. This post reports on the metrics for ConocoPhillips and the associated financial gauge scores. The metrics were calculated using data from the company's current and historical financial statements, including those in the latest 10-Q.
Before getting into the details, we will take a step back to introduce the subject of today's analysis.
ConocoPhillips is one of the ten biggest Integrated Oil and Gas companies, which produce, refine, transport, and market energy products. The company's market capitalization is approximately $80 billion, and its revenue was almost $150 billion in 2009.
ConocoPhillips was formed in 2002 when Conoco, Inc., merged with Phillips Petroleum. It added Burlington Resources, which had extensive natural gas operations, in March 2006 (when gas prices were high).
In March 2010, Conoco announced it would sell half of its 20 percent stake in Russia's Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY). This plan changed in July when Conoco decided to pursue the sale of its entire Lukoil investment by the end of 2011.
Additional background information about ConocoPhillips and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.
In summary, Conoco's latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:
- Cash Management: 8 of 25 (down from 14 in March)
- Growth: 4 of 25 (unchanged)
- Profitability: 5 of 25 (up from 4)
- Value: 5 of 25 (up from 2)
- Overall: 22 of 100 (up from 21)
| Cash Management | 30 Jun 2010 | 31 Mar 2010 | 30 Jun 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Current Ratio | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| LTD to Equity | 35.2% | 41.4% | 49.1% | 32.4% |
| Debt/CFO (years) | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Inventory/CGS (days) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Finished Goods/Inventory | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Days of Sales Outstanding (days) | 26.9 | 27.3 | 29.2 | 25.9 |
| Working Capital/Revenue | -0.8% | -1.0% | -0.4% | -0.9% |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Time (days) | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 8 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
The amount of Long-term Debt on Conoco's Balance Sheet has jumped twice in the last five years.
In the fourth quarter of 2008, Conoco recorded massive asset impairment charges. Total assets fell from $185 billion to $143 billion, and Shareholders Equity dropped from $93 billion to $55 billion. The company's Long-term Debt/Equity ratio increased from 23 percent to 49 percent. The ratio has since been reduced to 35 percent, thanks to asset sales, debt repayments and retained earnings. Nevertheless, a Google Finance stock screen indicates that Conoco's current LTD-to-Equity ratio is still high compared to many of its peers.
The ongoing efforts to sell assets, such as the Lukoil investment, and to trim capital spending should enable Conoco to reduce its debt level further.
| Growth | 30 Jun 2010 | 31 Mar 2010 | 30 Jun 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Revenue Growth | -3.9% | -24.6% | -19.7% | 2.8% |
| Revenue/Assets | 115.2% | 109.7% | 106.2% | 120.6% |
| Operating Profit Growth | 3.3% | -11.7% | -5.7% | 0.4% |
| CFO Growth | -3.6% | -24.1% | -39.5% | 2.4% |
| Net Income Growth | N/A | N/A | N/A | 125.6% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
The Operating Profit rate is the annualized rate of growth in Operating Profit after Taxes over the last 16 quarters.
Conoco has achieved substantial Revenue increases in the first two quarter of 2010, but the gains were not quite enough to turn the trailing-year growth rate from negative to positive.
Weakness in Operating Profit and Cash Flow from Operations have kept the Growth gauge score down, but the growth rates for these measures have improved considerably.
The Net Income growth rate is N/A because of a loss in the earlier period.
| Profitability | 30 Jun 2010 | 31 Mar 2010 | 30 Jun 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Operating Expense/Revenue | 92.7% | 93.7% | 91.0% | 89.2% |
| ROIC | 8.2% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 11.8% |
| Free Cash Flow/Invested Capital | 5.9% | 4.1% | -2.8% | 6.1% |
| Accrual Ratio | -1.8% | 0.8% | -15.5% | -0.2% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
The Profitability gauge is also weak.
Small improvements were also achieved with the ROIC and FCF ratios, but the improvements were not nearly enough to stir the gauge score.
Free Cash Flow has benefited from a significant reduction in capital expenditures.
The recent decline in the Accrual Ratio is also welcome. It often signals improved quality of earnings.
| Value | 30 Jun 2010 | 31 Mar 2010 | 30 Jun 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| P/E | 8.2 | 13.5 | N/A | 9.0 |
| P/E vs. S&P 500 P/E | 0.5 | 0.8 | N/A | 0.5 |
| PEG | 2.5 | N/A | N/A | 1.1 |
| Price/Sales | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Enterprise Value/Cash Flow (EV/CFO) | 6.6 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 5 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| Share Price $) | $49.09 | $51.17 | $42.06 | - |
The Price/Earnings ratio came down, which the Value gauge views as positive, as earnings surged and the company's share price fell $2. Earnings benefited from a one-time, $2.88 billion gain on the sale of an investment in Syncrude, which produces crude oil from Canadian oil sands.
The effect on the gauge score was muted because the P/E is only slightly below its long-term average.
The small decline in the Price/Sales ratio was also positive.
| Overall | 30 Jun 2010 | 31 Mar 2010 | 30 Jun 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Gauge Score (0 to 100) | 22 | 21 | 30 | 34 |
Although the Overall score is still very low, signs of improvement were noted in some of the financial metrics. The company has recently benefited from one-time gains on asset sales and reductions in capital spending. A recovery in energy prices has also helped. Lower production, on the other hand, has been a negative factor.
Asset sales are slated to continue into next year.
Full disclosure: Long COP at time of writing
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment