31 October 2006

The Growth Gauge


The Growth gauge score depends on the rate at which the company has increased the following quantities:

The Income Statement has the greatest effect on the Growth gauge, but data from the Balance Sheet and the Cash Flow Statement are also employed.

The Growth gauge is determined by calculating a score for each of the five quantities listed above.  A weighted average of the scores is then scaled to set the minimum value at zero and the maximum value at 25 points.

We're tough graders: it's rare for a company to achieve a 25-point Growth score.

The scoring details are described below.  Please note there is an overriding zero-point floor and a five-point ceiling for each growth component.


Revenue Growth

Using the quarterly Revenue figures on eight sequential Income Statements, the Revenue growth rate is found comparing Revenue in the last four quarters to Revenue in the four previous quarters.  

1.  If Revenue growth is negative (i.e., Revenue was less in the last four quarters), the score is zero points.

2.  If the growth rate exceeds 5 percent, then 0.15 points are given for each percentage point above 5 percent, up to a total of 3 points.  A growth rate of 25 percent or higher would earn all 3 points.  [0.15 * (25 - 5)]= 3.

3.  If the growth rate exceeds its four-year average, a bonus point is earned.

4.  If the growth rate is greater than it was one year earlier, a bonus point is earned.

5.  If the latest growth rate exceeds the growth rate calculated after each of the three previous quarters, a bonus point is earned.

6. The rules above could produce a score as great as 6 points.  If the score is greater than five, it is reduced to five points.


Revenue/Assets Growth



For each percentage point that the Revenue/Assets ratio is higher than it was one year earlier, up to five percentage points, a point is awarded.

Revenue/Assets is found by dividing the Revenue in the last four quarters by the average Total Assets over these four quarters.  It is expressed as percent.

This score rewards companies that grow their Revenue faster than they increase their Assets.

No points are given if Revenue/Assets is declining or if there was no Revenue growth.

If, for example, Revenue/Assets increased from 83.2 percent to 85.5 percent, the score would be 3.3 points as long as Revenue also increased from the previous year.


Operating Profit Average Growth


The Operating Profit growth rate is the average 12-month rate of increase, over the last 16 quarters, of Operating Profit after Taxes. 

1.  If Operating Profit growth is negative (i.e., Operating Profit is declining), the score is zero points.

2.  If the growth rate is positive, then the score is 20 * Operating Profit growth rate (as a decimal), up to a total of 4 points.  A growth rate of 20 percent or higher would earn all 4 points.  [20 * (0.2)]= 4.

3. If the latest Operating Profit growth rate exceeds the growth rate calculated one year earlier, a bonus point is earned.


Net Income Growth

The Net Income growth rate is found by comparing Net Income in the most recent four quarters to Net Income in the four previous quarters.  

1.  If Net Income growth is negative (i.e., Net Income is declining), the score is zero points.

2.  If the growth rate is positive, then the score is 20 * Net Income growth rate (as a decimal), up to a total of 4 points.  A growth rate of 20 percent or higher would earn all 4 points.  [20 * (0.2)]= 4.

3. If the latest Net Income growth rate exceeds the growth rate calculated after each of the three previous quarters, a bonus point is earned.


Cash Flow from Operations Growth

The CFO growth rate is found by comparing CFO in the most recent four quarters to CFO in the four previous quarters.  

1.  If CFO growth is negative (i.e., CFO is declining), the score is zero points.

2.  If the growth rate is positive, then the score is 20 * CFO growth rate (as a decimal), up to a total of 4 points.  A growth rate of 20 percent or higher would earn all 4 points.  [20 * (0.2)]= 4.

3. If the latest CFO growth rate exceeds the growth rate calculated after each of the three previous quarters, a bonus point is earned.



Determining the Growth Score

We use the following weights for the different Growth score components:
The Growth gauge score is 5 * (the sum of each component score multiplied by its weight) /  (100, the sum of the weights).







This post was last modified on 30 July 2010.

29 October 2006

The Cash Management Gauge

The Cash Management gauge score depends on the current and past values for the following ratios:
 
Most of the data required to compute the ratios are drawn from the Balance Sheet, but some figures from the Income Statement and the Cash Flow Statement are also used.

The Cash Management gauge is determined by calculating a score for each of the eight items listed above.  A weighted average of the scores is scaled to set its minimum value at zero and its maximum value at 25 points.

We're tough graders: it's a rare company that will achieve a 25-point Cash Management score.

The scoring details are described below.  Please note there is an overriding zero-point floor and a five-point ceiling for each ratio.


Current Ratio


Score = 5 - 2.5 * (Current Ratio - 2.5) ^ 2

In our sample Balance Sheet, GCFR Corp. had a Current Ratio was 75/41 = 1.83.  It would earn 3.9 points.

The maximum score of 5 is attained when the Current Ratio = 2.5.  Points are deducted for higher Current Ratios, which might seem strange, because the company is building its bank account instead of putting its assets to work.


LTD/Equity
Score = 5.0 - 20*(LTD/Equity -0.2)^2

In our sample Balance Sheet, GCFR Corp. had an LTD-to-Equity ratio of 60/134 = 44.8 percent.  It would earn 3.8 points.

The maximum score of 5 is attained when Long Term Debt to Equity equals 20 percent.  The equation is constructed such that a company with an LTD/Equity ratio between 0 and 40 percent will get at least 4 out of the 5 possible points.  We think some debt is appropriate because it gives stockholders leverage, but we disapprove of excessive debt.

Debt/CFO

Score = (-1.5) * Debt/CFO + 5.25

Debt/CFO is measured in years.

A bonus point is awarded if Debt/CFO is lower that it was one year earlier.

In our sample Balance Sheet, GCFR Corp. had a Debt-to-CFO ratio of 16.6 months = 1.38 years.  It would earn 3.2 points.



Inventory/CGS
Score = 25 * (delta Inventory-to-CGS / Inventory-to-CGS one year earlier)

Inventory-to-CGS is measured in days.

A 20 percent (i.e., 0.2) reduction in the number of Inventory days will achieve the full five points (25 * 0.2).

In our sample Balance Sheet, GCFR Corp. had a Inventory/CGS ratio = $13/0.433 = 30 days.  It the ratio was 33 days one-year earlier,  then the percent reduction would 3/33 = 0.091.  It would earn 2.8 points.

We don't use this ratio if inventory isn't significant for the company (e.g., the company sells a service, not a product).

Finished Goods/Inventory
Score = 200 * (decrease in the Finished Goods ratio from its median value)

If the current percentage of inventory made up of finished goods is above this ratio's median value, no points are earned.

A company gets the full 5 points if the current value of the finished good ratio is 2.5 or more percent less than its median value.

We don't use this ratio for scoring if the company's inventory doesn't consist of varying mix of raw materials, work in process, and finished goods (e.g., the company is a retailer), or if inventory isn't significant for the company (e.g., the company sells a service, not a product).

For example, let's say the finished goods component of inventory (the rest being raw materials and work in process) is now 28 percent and that the median value for this ratio is 30 percent.  The 2-percent reduction, worth 4 points, suggests that the company's sales were greater than expected.  The opposite, an increase in finished good inventory, is worrisome.


Days of Sales Outstanding

Score = 25 * (delta DSO / DSO one year earlier)

A 20 percent (i.e., 0.2) reduction in DSO is needed to earn the full five points (25 * 0.2). Lesser reductions will get lower scores. The score will be zero if there is no reduction.

For example, if GCFR Corp.'s Balance Sheet shows that Accounts Receivable averaged $12 million over the last year, and if its Revenue during the year was $200 million, then Receivables were 0.06 of annual Revenues, which is 21.9 days of Revenue.  If last year's figure was 23.9 days, then the score would be 25 * (2/23.9) = 2.1 points.

Working Capital/Revenue


Score =  ((-8.75) * WorkingCapToRevenue) + 3.5

Negative Working Capital results in a 3.5-point score.

1.5 bonus points are awarded if the ratio is lower that it was one year earlier.

The maximum score would be earned when Working Capital is negative and has become less as a percentage of Revenue.

In our sample Balance Sheet, GCFR Corp. had Working Capital of $75 million minus $41 million = $34 million on 30 June 2006.  During the previous year, the GCFR Income Statement lists Net Income of $20.1 million  Therefore, the Working Capital to Revenue ratio equals 34/20.1= 1.7, and no points would be awarded with the possible exception of the bonus 1.5 points.

Cash Conversion Cycle Time


Score = (1/2) * (percent decrease in CCCT from last year)

No score is allowed to be less than zero or greater than five.

In other words, each two percent decrease in CCCT earns another score point.

In our sample Balance Sheet, GCFR Corp. had a CCCT of 37 days.  If  this parameter had been 40 days one year earlier, then it decreased by 3/40 = .075 (7.5 percent).  This would earn 7.5/2 = 3.75 points.


Determining the Cash Management Score
We don't simply add up the scores described above to calculate the Cash Management score.  We believe some ratios are more significant than others.  To be specific, we use the following weights:

The Cash Management score is 5 * (the sum of each ratio's score multiplied by its weight) / (100, the total of the weights).



This post was last modified on 5 February 2010

The Four Gauges on Our Dashboard

In earlier posts (here, here, here, here, and here), we have described the key financial statements and identified enough ratios drawn from the figures on these statements to make any analyst's head spin.  Each ratio, to one extent or another, helps us understand a corporation's financial strength or the value of its shares.  However, to make the results easier to grasp (i.e., avoid data overload), we concentrate on a subset of the ratios and we organize them in way that tells us how the company is doing in the various facets of its business.

We have done this by constructing a dashboard; but, first, we will relate an analogy.  In (American) football, a dashboard showing a team's performance might have gauges for offense, defense, and special teams. The dashboard might have a separate gauge showing the value of the franchise.  Each of these gauges would show a number, or score, that is based on multiple statistics.

Our financial dashboard has four gauges, one for each of the following categories:
  1. Cash Management
  2. Growth
  3. Profitability
  4. Value.

Each gauge score is based on a handful of the ratios and related metrics presented earlier.

We also combine the score of the four category gauges into an Overall score.

Let's be frank: some financial ratios are more important that others.  In addition, the four gauge categories listed above are not equally important to investors. To deal with these differences, we weight individual metrics based on their significance, and we weight the gauges themselves when computing the Overall score.

Later, we will explain that the weights reflect how closely we believe the metrics correlate with future stock price performance.




This post was last updated on 27 June 2009.

Valuation Metrics - Price

Valuation metrics help determine whether a company's shares are fairly priced in an absolute sense, relative to other companies, and relative to the historic norms for the company.

In an earlier article, we identified several "per-share" valuation metrics, such as Earnings per Share.  We will now mention a few other well-known valuation metrics.


Market Value or Market Capitalization

A company's Market Value is its current share price multiplied by the number of common shares outstanding.  Market Value is the metric used to classify companies as Small, Mid, or Large  Capitalization ("cap"). These categories aren't precise, but small-cap stocks generally have Market Values less than $1 billion, mid-cap stocks have Market Values less than $10 billion, and large-cap stocks have market values of many billions of dollars.


Trailing Price to Earnings (P/E)

Given the way investors and analysts sprinkle P/E values in their conversations and reports, one might think that all other metrics are superfluous.  Although it is certainly important, the P/E has to be handled with great caution.  It is calculated by dividing Market Value by Net Income, which is equivalent to the Share Price divided by the Earnings per Share.  The result is a dimensionless quantity ($/$) that can be 10 or less for slow-growth companies, 10 to 20 for the more typical company, and off the chart for fast burners.

Keep in mind that the "E" value of a P/E can be more arbitrary than you might first think.  Does it reflect GAAP Net Income, or have certain gains and losses been excluded (if so, which ones)?

On 30 September 2006, PepsiCo's share price had spiked up to $65.26.  It had earned $2.94 ($0.88 + $0.80 + $0.60 + $0.65) during the previous four quarters, so the trailing P/E on that basis was about 22.

A different perspective of the P/E ratio can be gained by looking at its inverse: the E/P or Earnings Yield.  Dividing the EPS by the share price indicates how much the company yielded in earnings for each invested dollar, not unlike a bond's income yield.  Of course, a company's earnings are variable, and an investor can't directly get his or her hands on the earnings yield.

PepsiCo's P/E of 22 in September 2006 translates into an E/P earnings yield of about 4.5 percent. The earnings yield for healthy companies is usually less than the income yield on high-grade securities because of the expectation that the earnings will grow over time.  Bond yields are generally fixed, which is not a bad thing, but it limits their upside.


Forward P/E

In the discussion above all "E" earnings values corresponded to the company's Net Income during the last, or "trailing," four quarters. Given an expectation for earnings growth, the P/E ratio is also calculated using the predicted earnings for the future or "forward" period. (We prefer to look at the next four quarters, but the next fiscal year is more commonly used.)  If earnings are increasing, the forward P/E ratio will be less than the trailing P/E ratio and a high share price will seem more reasonable.


P/E to Growth (PEG)

As mentioned above, the P/E ratio tends to reflect expectations that the company will earn more money in the future.  The PEG ratio, which at first seems rather odd, tries to get at this relationship.  It is calculated by dividing the P/E ratio by the expected earnings growth rate in percent.  If we take Pepsico's P/E ratio of 22 in September 2006 and divide it by the 11 percent increase in Net Income then predicted by professionals, Pepsico's PEG ratio would then have been 2.0.

Value investors prefer the PEG ratio to be closer to (or below) 1.0.


Price/Operating Income and Price/Cash Flow

Because Net Income can vary significantly due to one-time or non-operational factors, it can be insightful to substitute Operating Income, Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT), Cash Flow from Operations (CFO), Free Cash Flow (FCF), or some other measure for the "E" value of the P/E ratio.  Individual analysts have their own preferences.


Enterprise Value / Cash Flow

Similar to Price/Cash Flow, Enterprise Value / Cash Flow from Operations substitutes Enterprise Value for Market Value.  Enterprise Value (EV) is Market Value, plus Debt (long- and short-term), minus the company's Cash and Short-term Investments.  EV is considered a better estimate of the cost to a corporate acquirer than the Market Value because the acquirer is assuming the debt, less any cash on hand that can be used to pay off the debt.


Price/Book value

This ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by the Book Value per share (i.e., Stockholders' Equity divided by Shares Outstanding).


Price/Sales (Price/Revenues)

The Price-to-Sales Ratio (PSR) is calculated by dividing the share price by annual Sales (or Revenue) per share. It can also be found by dividing Market Value by annual Sales (or Revenue).  The PSR is most useful when comparing valuations of companies in the same industry.




This article was last modified on 26 April 2010.

28 October 2006

Valuation Metrics - Per Share numbers

The widely reported Earnings per Share values are determined by dividing Net Income, or some variant of Net Income, by the number of Common Shares Outstanding.  At the end of each quarter, companies often announce the EPS for that quarter and the EPS for the fiscal year to date.

We prefer a different EPS calculation.  We use the Net Income for the last four quarters, irrespective of fiscal year boundaries, to compute a trailing-year EPS.  This approach eliminates any seasonality factors that favor one quarter over another.

The EPS denominator can be a simple average of the number of common shares outstanding over the period of earnings, or the number of shares can be inflated (i.e., "diluted") to account for the future exercise of stock options and other instruments convertible into common shares.   When making EPS comparisons, it is important to stick to one approach.

It can also be insightful to track other financial parameters on a per-share basis. These parameters include Operating Income, Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT), Cash Flow from Operations (CFO), Free Cash Flow (FCF), Working Capital (i.e., Current Assets minus Current Liabilities), and Shareholders' Equity.

A few words about the last two terms.  Working Capital identifies net value of the company's most liquid assets, after paying the short-term bills.  If you can buy shares in a company for less than its Working Capital per share, you probably bought the company at a discount.

Shareholder's Equity is also called the Book Value.  So-called Value Investors look for an opportunity to buy shares at no more than a small premium to the Book Value per share. However, it is very important to understand that book value might be very different from market value. For example, capital assets will be valued based on depreciation schedules, not on what they might fetch at auction.


On our Income Statement tutorial, the fictional GCFR, Inc., had Earnings Per Share of $0.46 in the three months ending 30 June 2006, up from $0.41 in the same period of the previous year.  EPS, therefore, increased by about 12 percent.

GCFR, Inc., in the June 2006 quarter, had a Net Operating Profit After Taxes per share of

     [(6.7 + 0.1) * (1 - 0.345)] / 12 = $4.454 million

and 12 million shares outstanding, for a NOPAT/share of $0.37. In the year-earlier quarter, the figures were $3.96 million and 11.6 million shares, resulting in a NOPAT/share of $0.34.  The increase of this parameter was about 9 percent.

By switching to our Cash Flow Statement tutorial, we see that GCFR, Inc., had Cash Flow from Operations of $29.7 million in the 12 months ending 30 June 2006.  Since there were 12 million shares outstanding, CFO/share equaled $2.47.   In the previous year, CFO/share was about $1.91.

GCFR's Free Cash Flow during the twelve months that ended in June 2006 was $23.2 million, which was equivalent to $1.93 per share.  In the previous year, Free Cash Flow was $22.2 million - $15.8 million = $6.5 million, or $0.56 per share.

We can also look at various Balance Sheet metrics on per-share basis.

For example, GCFR had Working Capital of $75 - $41 = $34 million on 30 June 2006.  Working Capital per Share was $2.83.

Book Value per share was $134 million/12 =  $11.17.






Revised 3 October 2009

27 October 2006

Cash Flow Statement

Introduction to Cash Flow Statement

The Cash Flow Statement is the third of the principal accounting tables that form the numerical foundation of an organization's financial report.  Cash flow figures are believed to be harder for a company to manipulate than reported earnings.

Because nearly every transaction involves a transfer of Cash, the Cash Flow Statement can reveal a lot about the inner workings of the business.  Cash flow can even shed light on the quality of the company's earnings. 

Two examples of transaction that provide cash to the company are selling a product at a profit and taking out a bank loan.  Buying new equipment and repaying the loan are transactions that consume the company's cash. 

The Cash Flow Statement lists how much cash was provided to the company, or consumed by the company, during a specified full or partial year by the following categories of transactions:
  • Operations
  • Investing
  • Financing.
If, in the aggregate, more cash is provided to the company than it consumes, then the company's Cash on hand (shown on the Balance Sheet) will increase.  Conversely, when more cash is consumed than provided, the company's cash balance will decrease.



We use the fictional example below to illustrate the construction of the Cash Flow Statement and the information we learn from these statements.


GCFR, Inc. Twelve Months
 (in millions) Ended June 30
  2006 2005
Cash flow from operating activities:    
    Net income $20.1 $17.3
    Adjustments to reconcile net income to cash provided by operating activities:    
    Depreciation and amortization $4.0 $4.9
    Decrease in deferred income taxes ($6.4) ($9.8)
    Stock compensation expense $6.8 $11.6
    Undistributed earnings of affiliated companies ($4.8) ($4.4)
    Gain on sale of business $2.0 $3.6
    Other, net ($7.2) $11.8
Operating cash flow before change in working capital $14.5 $35.0
    Decrease / (Increase) in working capital $15.2 ($12.8)
Cash provided by (used in) operating activities $29.7 $22.2
     
Cash flow from investing activities:    
    Capital expenditures ($6.5) ($15.8)
    Acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired ($8.6)
($4.8)
Cash provided by (used in) investing activities ($15.1) ($20.6)
     
Cash flow from financing activities:    
    Increase in debt $12.0 $19.2
    Decrease in debt ($5.6) ($2.5)
    Dividends paid to shareholders ($8.0) ($7.0)
    Acquisition of treasury stock ($2.0) ($0.8)
    Shares issued under stock plans $0.4 $1.8
Cash provided by (used in) financing activities ($3.2) $10.7
     
Net increase in cash during the period $11.4 $12.4
    Cash, beginning of period $10.0 $8.0
    Cash, end of period $21.4 $20.4



Cash Flow from (used in) Operations
As can be seen in the table above, the company's Net Income (from the Income Statement) is the starting point for determining how much cash the company's business operations provided or consumed during a particular period.  Net Income has to be adjusted to account for Income Statement gains and expenses, such as depreciation and deferred taxes, that don't result in cash changing hands.  It also has to be adjusted to reflect changes in the company's Working Capital, which is Current Assets - Current Liabilities, because an increase in, say, Inventory or a decrease in Accounts Receivable is due to the movement of cash.

In the example above, Cash Flow from Operations at GCFR, Inc., increased from $22.2 million to $29.7 million.  A 34-percent CFO annual growth rate is very robust.



Cash Flow from (used in) Investing


Investing activities are often a net consumer of cash because most companies, but especially manufacturers, have to make recurring Capital Spending investments to expand and maintain Property, Plant, and Equipment.  Some companies also have cash Acquisition Expenses in certain years.

The sale of investments is a cash-providing activity.

When a company buys equipment that will be used for many years, the cost is booked immediately on the Cash Flow Statement as Capital Spending, but it is charged to operations on the Income Statement as depreciation in installments over the useful life of the equipment.  These installments reduce Net Income each quarter, but they do not result in additional cash flow.

In the example, GCFR invested $15.1 million in cash during the recent period.



Cash Flow from (used in) Financing

Finance activities provide cash when debt securities are issued, and they consume cash when dividends are paid or the company's shares are repurchased from investors.

In the example, GCFR used $3.2 million for financing activities in one year.  These activities provided $10.7 million cash in the previous year.


Net increase (decrease) in cash

In the example, operating activities provided cash of $29.7 million, investing activities consumed $15.1 million, and financing activities consumed $3.2 million.  As a result, GCFR Inc.'s cash balance increased by $11.4 million to $21.4 million.


Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow connects the operations and investing sections of the Cash Flow Statement.  FCF, in the sense we use it, is Cash Flow from Operations less Capital Spending. It indicates how much cash the company has left over after paying for the equipment needed to keep the company running.

GCFR, Inc., during the twelve months that ended in June 2006 had Cash Flow from Operations of $29.7 million.  In this period, capital spending was $6.5 million.  Therefore, the Free Cash Flow was $23.2 million.  In the previous year, Free Cash Flow was $22.2 million - $15.8 million = $6.5 million.


CFO/Revenue
GCFR, Inc., had Cash Flow from Operations of $29.7 million in fiscal 2006.  From the Income Statement, we see that it had Revenues of $198.1 million in the same year.

Therefore, CFO/Revenue was 15.0 percent.  During the previous year, the corresponding figures were $22.2 million, $170.0 million, and 13.1 percent.


FCF/Equity

This is a return on investment measure using FCF instead of Net Income.  With a FCF of $23.2 million, and Stockholders' Equity of $134 million, GCFR's FCF/Equity was 17.3 percent.  For the previous year, the values were $6.5 million, $107 million, and 6.1 percent.


FCF/Invested Capital

This is a broader return on investment measure because Invested Capital reflects the investment made in the company by Equity investors and lenders.

Invested Capital, as we define it, is Capitalization (Shareholders' Equity + Debt), less Cash and Short-term investments.  The subtraction is made because the liquid funds haven't been invested in the company's operations.  The components of Invested Capital can all be found on the company's Balance Sheet.

In our Balance Sheet tutorial, we showed that fictional GCFR Corp. had Invested Capital of

    $134 + ($60 + $9) - $10 - $11 = $182 million

on 30 June 2006. 

With a FCF of $23.2 million, FCF/Invested Capital =12.7 percent


Accrual Ratio

The Accrual Ratio subtracts FCF from Net Income, and divides the result by Total Assets. When FCF is greater than Net Income, the Accrual Ratio is negative, which is good. When Net Income is greater than FCF, it indicates that part of the income was the result of non-cash items (i.e., accruals). Earnings spiked by accruals are considered to be of a lower quality.
For GCFR, Inc., Net Income was $20.1 million and FCF was $23.2 million in fiscal 2006.  FCF exceeded Net Income by $3.1 million. Total Assets were $255 million at the end of the period. The Accrual Ratio was -1.2 percent of assets.




Note: This post was last updated on 23 June 2009.

25 October 2006

Income Statement

Introduction to the Income Statement

At its most basic level, the Income Statement lists a firm's Revenue, operating and other expenses, and how much money was left over in some currency during a specific period of time.  This simplicity makes the Income Statement the most intuitive of the accounting tables in a financial report.

The Income Statement typically covers a three-month fiscal quarter or a fiscal year.  To facilitate comparisons, a quarterly Income Statement will show, side by side, data for the designated quarter and for the year-earlier period.  Annual Income Statements will list results for two or three consecutive years.

The bottom-line figure, which is called either Net Income or Net Earnings, is expressed both in absolute terms (dollars, or another currency) and in an amount related the number of common shares the company has outstanding (dollars per share).

Earnings Per Share gets the most attention in the financial press.

Assumptions made by corporate management can have a great effect on the Income Statement's figures.  Earnings, which might appear to be the result of mere arithmetic, are more subjective that it might appear.

Revenue

The "top-line" of the Income Statement lists the company's Revenue, or Sales, during the quarter or year.  The notes accompanying the financial statements will indicate what rules the company followed to recognize a transaction as Revenue.  The rules will address questions such as: what if the company sells an item to wholesaler that can return the item if it is not bought by a consumer?  What if the company receives funds for a service or product it will deliver in the future.

Determining Revenue is more complicated than counting the cash in the till each day.


Operating Costs or Expenses and Operating Income

The next section of the Income Statement lists the expenses that can be tied, directly or indirectly, to the creation and sales of the company's products.

The Cost of Goods Sold (CGS) (a/k/a Cost of Revenues) includes the labor and material costs to create the company's products.  It is usually the largest Operating Expense.

Depreciation of the equipment and facilities used for company operations might be included in CGS, or it might be broken out separately.  This non-cash expense reflects decreasing value over time of the company's capital equipment.

Other typical operating expense categories are Research and Development (R&D); Sales (i.e., marketing), General and Administrative (SG&A); and non-recurring Special Operating Charges (less frequently Gains).  The markdown (or write-down) of the value of  Inventory is an example of a special charge.  This is one example of an Asset being recognized as impaired.

Operating Income is found by subtracting Operating Costs/Expenses from Revenue.


Non-Operating Income and Expense

Non-operating items might include categories such as Gains or Losses on Investments, Gains or Losses on Asset Sales, Net Interest Income or Expense, and the catchall miscellaneous category.

The company's Pre-tax Income, or Taxable Income, is determined by adding the Non-operating gains to, and subtracting the Non-operating losses from, Operating Income.

A provision for Income Taxes reduces Income to the bottom-line figure.


Net Income

Net Income is divided by the number of Common Shares Outstanding to compute the widely reported Earnings per Share (EPS). Sometimes non-recurring gains and losses are excluded from the EPS values one sees in the newspaper or on TV, so the analyst has to treat these values with extreme caution. 


Income Statement Example

While most Income Statements have the same general structure, they can differ substantially in the details.  The following is a fictitious example, which we use below to illustrate what can be learned from the Income Statement.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)

Quarter ending
30 June 2006
Quarter ending
30 June 2005
Year ending
30 June 2006
Year ending
30 June 2005
Revenue
52.243.9198.1170.0
Op expenses





CGS (39.1)(33.0)(149.1)(127.1)

Depreciation(1.0)(1.3)(4.0)(3.9)

R&D(2.1)(1.8)(8.2)(6.0)

SG&A (3.2)(1.7)(11.1)(7.1)

Other ("Special")(0.1)(0.2)(0.4)(0.8)
Operating Income
6.75.925.325.1
Other income





Gains on asset sales0.50.92.03.1

Gains on investments2.41.69.05.8

Net Interest and other income(1.2) (1.0)(4.1)(4.8)
Pretax income
8.47.432.229.2
Provisions for Income taxes
(2.9) (2.6)(12.1)(11.9)
Net Income before adjustments
5.54.820.117.3

Equity income less minority interests0.00.00.00.0

Discontinued operations and Accounting changes0.00.00.00.0
Net Income
5.54.820.117.3
Earnings per Share ($/sh)
$0.46/sh$0.41/sh$1.70/sh$1.51/sh
Shares outstanding (M)
12.0011.6011.8211.43



What Can be Learned from the Income Statement?

The Income Statement can reveal a lot about an organization's operations.  To gain those insights, financial analysts measure the rate of change for key Income Statement items, and they calculate various ratios using data from the Income Statement, other financial statements, and the supporting Notes

The importance of any particular ratio depends on the size, type, and condition of the company being evaluated.  Changes in the ratios over time are often more revealing than the values themselves.  It can also be useful to compare ratios for one company with other firms in the same industry. 

GCFR uses the ratios described below.


Revenue Growth

Changes in the company's Revenue can be characterized in various ways.  To eliminate seasonal factors, it is common to compare Revenue in one quarter to Revenue in the same quarter of the previous year.

Less widely used, sequential quarterly Revenue growth compares Revenue in the current quarter to Revenue in the immediately preceding quarter.

To smooth out the trend, we compare Revenue during the previous four quarters to Revenue during the prior four quarters.  We refer to this growth rate as "year-over-year" growth or "trailing 4-quarters."  Readers should be aware that there are alternative definitions for these terms.  The year in these calculations will coincide with the fiscal year only 25 percent of the time.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Revenue Growth
Quarters ending June 2006 and June 2005(52.2 - 43.9)/43.9 = 18.9%
Years ending June 2006 and June 2005(198.1 - 170.0)/170.0 = 16.5%


Operating Expenses/Revenue

The ratio of each Operating Expense item to Revenue shows what the company spent to realize each sales dollar.  We make these calculations for the current quarter and for the last four quarters.  If the company is able to achieve efficiencies of scale as it increases Revenue, costs as a percentage of Revenue will drop, and more of each sales dollar will reach the bottom line as earnings.

We subtract CGS/Revenue from 1 to determine the Gross Margin.   Alternatively, this can be expressed as (Revenue- CGS)/Revenue.  A high Gross Margin is preferred, as it indicates that the company can sell its goods and services for much more than the production cost.  We find it more useful to compare the Gross Margins from year to year, rather than from quarter to quarter because the data for shorter periods can be volatile.

For fictional GCFR Inc., using figures from the sample Income Statement above:

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Gross Margin
Quarter ending June 20061 - (39.1/52.2) = 25.1%
Quarter ending June 20051 - (33.0/43.9) =  24.8%
Year ending June 20061 - (149.1/198.1) = 24.7%
Year ending June 20051 - (127.1/170.0) = 25.2%


When the data is available, we separately calculate Depreciation/Revenue, R&D/Revenue, and SG&A/Revenue.  Depreciation is included in CGS for some firms, and some firms don't engage in R&D.

As was mentioned for Gross Margin, we prefer to compare the expense ratios from year to year, rather than from quarter to quarter.  Seemingly random variations in shorter periods can obscure the underlying trends and lead to erroneous conclusions.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Depreciation/RevenueR&D/RevenueSG&A/Revenue
Quarter ending June 20061.0/52.2 = 1.9%2.1/52.2 = 4.0%3.2/52.2 = 6.1%
Quarter ending June 20051.3/43.9 = 3.0%1.8/43.9 = 4.1%1.7/43.9 = 3.9%
Year ending June 20064.0/198.1 = 2.0%8.2/198.1 = 4.1%11.1/198.1 = 5.6%
Year ending June 20053.9/170.0 = 2.3%6.0/170.0 = 3.5%7.1/170.0 = 4.2%


Finally, the ratio of total Operating Expense to Revenue gives an indication of the company's overall profitability.


GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Operating Expense / Revenue
Quarter ending June 2006(39.1 + 1.0 + 2.1 + 3.2 + 0.1) / 52.2  = 87.2%
Quarter ending June 2005(33.0 + 1.3 + 1.8 + 1.7 + 0.2) /43.9 = 86.6 %
Year ending June 2006(149.1 + 4.0 + 8.2 +11.1 + 0.4) / 198.1 = 87.2%
Year ending June 2005(127.1 + 3.9 + 6.0 + 7.1 + 0.8) / 170.0 = 85.2%


Operating Income and Net Income Growth

Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year Income growth rates can be calculated in the same way as Revenue.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Operating Income GrowthNet Income Growth
Quarters ending June 2006 and June 2005(6.8 - 6.1) / 6.1 = 11.5%(5.5 - 4.8) / 4.8 = 14.6%
Years ending June 2006 and June 2005(25.3 - 25.1) / 25.1 = 0.8%(20.1 - 17.3) / 17.3 = 16.2%


Income Tax Rate

The ratio of Provisions for Income Taxes to the Income before Taxes should be checked to see if the tax rate has changed.  We've seen companies trumpet increased earnings that were due primarily to a change in the tax rate (and had nothing to do with the fundamental functioning of the business).  Because the quarterly data can be quite volatile, the annual tax rate is better suited for earnings models.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Income Tax Rate
Quarter ending June 20062.9/8.4 = 34.5%
Quarter ending June 20052.6/7.4 = 35.1%
Year ending June 200612.1/32.2 = 37.6%
Year ending June 200511.9/29.2 = 40.8%


Revenue/Assets

The ratio of Revenue during a quarter or year to Total Assets indicates how effectively and efficiently the company is employing its Assets to generate sales. The key is to look for changes: is the efficiency increasing or decreasing?

Total Assets is a figure listed on the Balance Sheet.  When making the Revenue/Assets calculation, the amount of Assets at the end of the period can be used.  However, a more representative calculation can be made by averaging the Asset values at the beginning and end of the period.  The difference between these two approaches is more significant for small, rapidly growing companies.

Note that Revenue/Assets for a quarter will be about 25 percent of Revenue/Assets for the year.  We multiply the quarterly result by 4 to make it more comparable with annual data.  However, this approach can produce misleading results if sales are highly seasonal.  In this case, an analyst would want to look at historical trends to determine the typical distribution of Revenue over the year.

Let's assume a series of Balance Sheets for fictional GCFR Inc. listed the following values for Total Assets:

DateTotal Assets ($M)
9/30/2004187.7
12/31/2004192.5
3/31/2005197.4
6/30/2005202.5
9/30/2005207.7
12/31/2005213.0
3/31/2006234.0
6/30/2006255.0


We compute Revenue/Assets as shown below:

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Revenue/Assets
Quarter ending June 20064*52.2/[0.5*(255.0+234.0)] = 85.4%
Quarter ending June 20054*43.9/[0.5*(202.5+197.4)] = 87.8%
Year ending June 2006198.1/[0.5*(255.0 +202.5)] = 86.6%


Operating Profit or Net Operating Profit after Taxes

Operating Profit is a variation of the Operating Income item on the Income Statement.  We calculate it by excluding unusual operating gains and losses from Operating Income and adjusting the remainder to reflect Income Taxes. 

     Operating Profit (a/k/a NOPAT) = (Operating Income + Special Charges) * (1 - Income Tax Rate)


Operating Profit differs from Net Income in that it excludes Non-Operating income and expenses, such as interest and investment returns.

At GCFR, we calculate and track Operating Profit's average annual growth rate over the last 16 quarters.  This growth rate should be less volatile than the Net Income growth rate because special items are excluded and the longer averaging time (16 vs. 4 quarters).


Net Operating Profit after Taxes/Revenue

NOPAT/Revenue is a good measure of the profitability of the company's core business.
It would be rare for us to compute this ratio with quarterly values, but we include quarter and annual NOPAT/Revenue values in the table below to show how the calculation would be made.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
NOPAT/Revenue
Quarter ending June 2006(6.7 + 0.1) * (1 - 0.345) / 52.2 = 8.5%
Quarter ending June 2005(5.9 + 0.2) * (1 - 0.351) / 43.9 = 9.0%
Year ending June 2006(25.3 + 0.4) * (1 - 0.376) / 198.1 = 8.1%
Year ending June 2005(25.1 + 0.8) * (1 - 0.408) / 170.0 = 9.0%


Net Income/Revenue

Net Income as a percentage of Revenues (a/k/a Net Margin) is a more complete measure of profitability, but it can be swayed by extraordinary non-operational changes.

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Net Income/Revenue
Quarter ending June 20065.5/52.2 = 10.5%
Quarter ending June 20054.8/43.9 = 10.9%
Year ending June 200620.1/198.1 = 10.1%
Year ending June 200517.3/170.0 = 10.2%


Net income/Stockholders' Equity

This a basic return-on-investment ratio.  Stockholders have a right to expect that the company will make more for each dollar of investment than lower risk securities.

Stockholders' (or Shareholders') Equity is listed on the Balance Sheet.  When making the Net Income/Equity calculation, the Equity at the end of the period can be used.  However, a more representative calculation can be made by averaging the Equity values at the beginning and end of the period.  The difference between these two approaches is more significant for small, rapidly growing companies.

Note that Net Income/Equity for a quarter will be about 25 percent of Net Income/Equity for the year.  We multiply the quarterly result by 4 to make it more comparable with annual data.  However, this approach can produce misleading results if Net Income is highly seasonal.  In this case, an analyst would want to look at historical trends to determine the typical distribution of Net Income over the year.

Let's assume a series of Balance Sheets for fictional GCFR Inc. listed the following values for Stockholders Equity:

DateStockholders Equity ($M)
9/30/200494.3
12/31/200496.7
3/31/200599.2
6/30/2005101.7
9/30/2005104.3
12/31/2005107.0
3/31/2006120.5
6/30/2006134.0


We compute Net Income/Equity as shown below:

GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
Net Income/Equity
Quarter ending June 20064*5.5/[0.5*(134.0+120.5)] = 17.3%
Quarter ending June 20054*4.8/[0.5*(101.7+99.2)] = 19.1%
Year ending June 200620.1/[0.5*(134.0+101.7)] = 17.1%


Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

ROIC is a more subtle return-on-investment ratio that provides insight into how much the company earns on each dollar of capital provided by shareholders and lenders.  We use NOPAT for the last four quarters as the numerator, and Invested Capital, which we discussed in the Balance Sheet tutorial, as the denominator. 

From the NOPAT/Revenue discussion above, we can determine that the fictional GCFR Inc. had a 4-quarter NOPAT of (25.3 + 0.4) * (1 - 0.376) = $16.0 million as of 30 June 2006.

Invested Capital measures the investment, whether raised by stock sales or taking on debt, that is actually deployed (i.e., not sitting in the bank).  The definition for this term that we use is Stockholders' Equity, plus Short- and Long-Term Debt, minus Cash as the denominator.  These values are listed on the Balance Sheet.



GCFR Inc.
(Millions of $)
30 June 2006
Cash10
Short-term Investments11
Notes payable9
Long-term Debt60
Stockholders' Equity134

ROIC = 16 / (134 + 60 + 9 - 10 - 11) = 8.8%



Note: This post was originally published on 25 October 2006.  It was revised on 1 September 2008, 17 January 2009, 19 April 2009, 10 July 2010, and 4 August 2010.