27 February 2010

PRGN: Income Statement Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

Paragon Shipping, Inc., (NASDAQ: PRGN) earned $0.26 per share, on a GAAP basis, in the fourth quarter of 2009, which ended on 31 December 2009.  When compared to the fourth quarter of 2008, Net Income increased by 27.6 percent, and the weighted average number of diluted Class A shares grew by 75.9 percent.  As a result, GAAP earnings per share fell close to 30 percent.

Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income, which excludes certain non-cash items, fell 38.9 percent and Adjusted EPS slid 67.3 percent.

This post reviews Paragon's Income Statement for the quarter.  The principal sources for the analysis were the earnings announcement and the conference call presentation [pdf].
 
In a second article, we will provide updated figures for the financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.

26 February 2010

KG: Income Statement Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

King Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: KG) earned $0.09 per share in the fourth quarter of 2009, which ended 31 December 2009.  In the year-earlier quarter, King lost $2.25 per share, in large part due to charges associated with the company's $1.6 billion acquisition of Alpharma.

Non-GAAP "adjusted" earnings fell from $0.29 to $0.23 per share.  A $41 million pretax charge for the amortization of intangible assets was the most substantial item excluded from the adjusted results in the December 2009 quarter.

This post examines King's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Our EPS target was $0.22 per share, which was $0.13 more than King actually reported.

The principal source for the income statement analysis was the earnings announcement.  We did not have access to a conference call transcript.

In a second article, we will report King's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges.  The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.

24 February 2010

WPI: Income Statement Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: WPI) earned $0.51 per share in the fourth quarter of 2009, which ended 31 December, up from $0.50 in the same quarter of 2008. 

The latest quarter was unusual in that it included about one month of Arrow Group results.  Watson's acquisition of Arrow, which closed on 2 December 2009, added about 20 generic drugs to Watson's growing product line.

Adjusted, non-GAAP earnings increased from $0.64 to $0.85 per share in the fourth quarter.

This post examines Watson's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Our estimate did not include any Arrow Group results, and it is difficult to determine what Watson might have earned had the acquisition not been made.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement and the ensuing conference call (transcript available from Seeking Alpha).

In a second article, we will report Watson's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges. The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.

23 February 2010

HD: Income Statement Analysis for the January 2010 Quarter

The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) earned $0.20 per share in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, which ended 31 January 2010.  The company lost $0.03 in the same quarter of the previous year. 

The fourth-quarter results included a number of unusual items.  On a non-GAAP "adjusted" basis, which excludes write-downs and discontinued operations, earnings increased from $0.19 to $0.24 per share.

This post examines Home Depot's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Home Depot surpassed our EPS target of $0.17 by $0.03 per share on a GAAP basis on $0.07 per share on an adjusted basis.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement and the ensuing conference call (transcript available from Seeking Alpha).

In a second article, we will report Home Depot's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges.  The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.

22 February 2010

BP: Financial Gauge Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

This post provides updated Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value metrics and our Financial Gauge scores for BP (NYSE: BP and LON:BP).  The metrics were calculated using data in BP's financial reports, including the earnings announcement for the quarter that ended 31 December 2009.

We have already examined the Income Statement for BP's December quarter, which was the fourth quarter of its fiscal year.  The $1.36-per-ADS profit attributable to shareholders more than reversed the $1.07 loss in the same quarter of 2008.

BP, the former British Petroleum, is a major Integrated Oil and Gas company.  It is a significant operator of Alaskan oil fields and pipelines, and it is currently the "largest leaseholder in the Gulf of Mexico."  BP also owns 50 percent of the Russian TNK-BP joint venture.  Additional background information about BP and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the beginning of the look-ahead.

BP prepares its financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), as adopted for use by the European Union.  Reports prior to 2006 complied with UK Generally Accepted Accounting Principles

The latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:

The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary.

18 February 2010

WMT: Income Statement Analysis for the January 2010 Quarter

Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) earned $1.21 per share in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, which ended on 31 January.  This per-share amount is 26 percent more than earnings of $0.96 in the previous January quarter.

This post examines Walmart's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Walmart surpassed our EPS target of $1.10 by $0.11 per share.  However, if a $0.10 nonrecurring tax benefit and a $0.04 restructuring charge are excluded, the difference between reported earnings and our target value shrinks to $0.05.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement and the ensuing conference call (transcript available from Seeking Alpha).

In a second article, we will report Walmart's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges. The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.

Discounter Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., had sales over $400 billion, nearly 10 percent of U.S. retail sales, last year.  This earned Walmart the Number 2 position on the Fortune 500 list of America's largest corporations, behind Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).  Additional background information about Walmart and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.

Pleasclick here to see a full-sized, normalized depiction of the actual and projected results for the just-concluded quarter, as well as the quarterly Income Statements for the last couple of years.  Please note that our organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which we use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.



Revenue (Net sales and some other income) of $113.7 billion was 4.5 percent more than in the same quarter of 2008.  Changes in currency conversion rates added about $1.9 billion to Net Sales.

The reported figure for Revenue was less than our $114.6 billion estimate by 0.8 percent.

Sales at the company's eponymous U.S. stores decreased 0.5 percent, relative to the previous year's fourth quarter.  A slip in same-store sales of 2.0 percent might be more worrisome.  Sam's Club did better: sales increased 3.8 percent.

International stores also did well, recording a 19.5 percent sales increase or 11.9 percent on a constant currency basis.  The International figures benefited (not sure how much) from Walmart's acquisition in Chile.

The Cost of Goods Sold (CGS) was 75.1 percent of Revenue, which translates into a Gross Margin of 24.9 percent.  The margin was 24.6 percent (restated) in the January 2009 quarter.  Walmart beat our margin estimate of 24.3 percent by 60 basis points.

Sales, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses increased 3.2 percent, from $20.4 billion to $21.1 billion, which was more than we expected.  Nevertheless, as a percentage of Revenue, SG&A decreased from 18.8 percent to 18.5 percent.  

We had estimated these expenses would be 18 percent of Revenue.

The various operating items combined to produce Operating Income of $7.26 billion, a 13.8 percent gain over the $6.38 billion in the year-earlier quarter.  The improvement was mostly due to the increase in Revenue, but the small margin improvement and cost control also helped. 

Operating Income eked out a 0.5 percent gain over our $7.22 billion estimate.

The Net Interest expense fell 4.7 percent to $469 million.  We had expected $500 million.

The effective Income Tax Rate in the quarter was 28.4 percent, which is significantly less than Walmart's typical rate of around 34 percent.  The explanation is that the company garnered:

$372 million, or $0.10 per share, in net tax benefits primarily from the repatriation of certain non-U.S. earnings that increased U.S. foreign tax credits.
 
Income attributable to noncontrolling interests and a loss from discontinued operations were each about $50 million more than we expected.  Taking these into account, Net Income attributable to Walmart shareholders of $4.6 billion ($1.21 per share) was 22 percent (26 percent) more than in the January 2009 quarter.  Net Income exceeded our $4.3 billion forecast by $344 million.


In summary, Walmart's Revenue, Operating Income, and Net Income all increased in the fourth quarter.  The results benefited to some extent by currency exchange rate variations and to a significant extent by a one-time tax benefit.   The decline in U.S. same store sales is what concerns us the most for the future.



Full disclosure: Long WMT at time of writing.

17 February 2010

NVDA: Income Statement Analysis for the January 2010 Quarter

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) earned $0.23 per share in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, which consisted of the 14 weeks (one more than normal) that ended on 31 January 2010.  NVIDIA lost $0.27 per share in the same quarter of fiscal 2009.

The results were about the same on a non-GAAP ("pro forma" or "ex-items") basis.

This post examines NVIDIA's Income Statement for the latest quarter compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  NVIDIA surpassed our EPS target of $0.14 by a substantial $0.09 per share.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, the Chief Financial Officer's commentary, and the conference call (transcript available from Seeking Alpha).

In a second article, we will report NVIDIA's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges. The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.

16 February 2010

PG: Financial Gauge Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

This post provides updated Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value metrics and our Financial Gauge scores for Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG).  The metrics were calculated using data in P&G's financial reports, including the 10-Q for the quarter that ended 31 December 2009.

We have already examined the Income Statement for the December quarter, which was the second quarter of the company's fiscal 2010.  Procter & Gamble earned $1.01 from continuing operations and $0.48 from discontinued operations.  An after-tax gain of $1.46 billion on the divestiture of the pharmaceuticals business was responsible for most of the earnings from discontinued operations.

Based in Cincinnati, P&G sells well-known consumer products, including Pampers, Tide, Ariel, Always, Pantene, Bounty, Pringles, Charmin, Downy, Iams, Crest, Actonel and Olay.  Some background information about P&G and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the beginning of the look-ahead

The latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:

14 February 2010

NOK: Financial Gauge Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

This post provides updated Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value metrics and our Financial Gauge scores for Nokia (NYSE: NOK).  The metrics were calculated using data in Nokia's financial reports, including the earnings announcement [pdf] for the quarter that ended 31 December 2009.

We have already examined the Income Statement for the December quarter.  Nokia earned €0.26 per diluted share, up from €0.15 in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Nokia has been a leading global producer of mobile phones since 1998, but it is facing increasing competition from companies such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) in the marketplace (and courtroom) for smartphones.  Some background information about Nokia and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the beginning of the look-ahead.

The latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:

The Euro (€) is the currency used in Nokia's financial statements, which are prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)

The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary.


Cash Management31 Dec 200930 Sep 200931 Dec 20085-yr Avg
Current Ratio1.61.51.21.6
LTD/Equity33.9%36.7%6.1%5.8%
Debt/CFO (years)1.63.81.40.6
Inventory/CGS (days)28.231.031.126.4
Finished Goods/InventoryN/AN/AN/AN/A
Days of Sales Outstanding (days)77.280.876.259.7
Working Capital/Revenue15.4%12.7%13.8%20.1%
Cash Conversion Cycle Time (days)35.939.040.629.1
Gauge Score (0 to 25)155510

In 2009, Nokia altered its capital structure to include much more Debt.  Long-term debt increased from €861 million in December 2008 (6.1 percent of Shareholders' Equity at the time) to €4.43 billion now (33.9 percent of Equity). 

At the end of September quarter, we calculated the Debt load (short- and long-term) as equivalent to 3.8 years of Cash Flow from Operations.  However, much stronger Cash Flow in the December quarter brought the debt equivalence to a much less burdensome 1.6 years.  This was one contributor to the big improvement in the Cash Management gauge score.

Another positive change was the reduction in the company's Inventory level from 31 days at the end of 2008 to 28 days when last year ended.

Although the Days of Sales Outstanding remains higher than it was a year ago, it is lower than it was at the end of the September quarter.  Coupled with the aforementioned Inventory reduction, these efficiency improvements drove down the Cash Conversion Cycle Time rather significantly and to the benefit of the gauge score.


Growth31 Dec 200930 Sep 200931 Dec 20085-yr Avg
Revenue growth-19.2%-22.5%-0.7%6.8%
Revenue/Assets108.8%110.1%131.4%149.0%
Operating Profit growth-6.9%-2.4%24.7%1.2%
CFO growth1.6%-77.3%-59.4%8.9%
Net Income growth-93.3%#N/A-42.4%1.4%
Gauge Score (0 to 25)10311
Revenue, CFO, and Net Income growth rates compare the last four quarters to the four previous quarters.
The Operating Profit rate is the annualized rate of growth in
Operating Profit after Taxes over the last 16 quarters.

Revenue in the whole of 2009 was 19 percent less than in 2008.  However, the decline moderated by the end of year because the fourth quarter Revenue was down only about 5 percent.

Revenue was also substantially lower as a percentage of the company's total Assets.

The Operating Profit metric is a four-year average that should not change greatly from quarter to quarter; its plunge reflects the steepness of the recent decline.

The decline in Net Income was exacerbated the staggering third-quarter €908 million intangible-asset impairment charge related to Nokia Siemens Networks. 

A bright spot is that a better fourth quarter pushed Cash Flow from Operations for the year above that of the year earlier.


Profitability31 Dec 200930 Sep 200931 Dec 20085-yr Avg
Operating Expenses/Revenue94.4%95.7%88.7%88.9%
ROIC5.8%10.5%55.7%92.2%
Free Cash Flow/Invested Capital25.6%7.8%28.6%100.4%
Accrual Ratio-0.6%3.1%9.3%-1.4%
Gauge Score (0 to 25)941213

Nokia's Operating Expenses, which had been increasing as a percentage of Revenue, came down a notch in the fourth quarter.

The recovery in the Free Cash Flow ratio had an even greater effect on the Profitability gauge score.  Rising Cash Flow also helped with the Accrual Ratio's indication of Earnings Quality.

The ROIC is still suffering from weaker performance and special charges earlier in 2009.


Value31 Dec 200930 Sep 200931 Dec 20085-yr Avg
P/E53.6104.414.621.7
P/E vs. S&P 500 P/E 3.14.70.81.3
PEGN/AN/A0.62.0
Price/Revenue1.21.31.12.0
Enterprise Value/Cash Flow (EV/CFO)13.636.917.416.3
Gauge Score (0 to 25)117176
Share Price ($)$12.85$14.62$15.60-

The 12 percent decline in the price of Nokia ADRs during the fourth quarter, coupled with a strong fourth quarter, was welcomed by the Value gauge.

The earnings-related multiples remain unattractive, but the Revenue and (especially) Cash Flow figures should be more appealing.


Overall31 Dec 200930 Sep 200931 Dec 20085-yr Avg
Gauge Score (0 to 100)41214739


The Overall gauge score for Nokia bottomed out in the third quarter with its lowest reading in a decade.  Our expectations for the fourth quarter were modest, at best.  However, Nokia ended the year with better numbers than seemed likely a few months earlier.  Margins improved and Cash Flow was surprisingly strong.  These results lifted each of the category gauges, although a 1-point Growth gauge is no cause for celebration.  The Cash Management gauge performed the best, and the Value gauge got an added boost from a dip in the ADR price. 



Full disclosure: Long NOK at time of writing.

12 February 2010

MSFT: Financial Gauge Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

This post provides updated Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value metrics and our Financial Gauge scores for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).  The metrics were calculated using data in Microsoft's financial reports, including the 10-Q for the quarter that ended 31 December 2009.

We have already examined the Income Statement for the December quarter, which was the second quarter of the company's fiscal 2010.  Microsoft earned $0.74 per diluted share in this period, up from $0.47 per share in the same quarter of fiscal 2009.


Microsoft is best known for operating system and application software, but the company also sells video game consoles, music players, and computer peripheralsWindows 7 became available on 22 October 2009

The latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:

The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary.

11 February 2010

PEP: Income Statement Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) earned $0.90 per diluted share, on a GAAP basis, in the 16-week quarter that ended 26 December 2009.  Net Income of $1.4 billion in this fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 nearly doubled the equivalent amount in the previous year.

Earnings in the earlier period were lower than normal because of currency exchange rates and an array of special items.

This post examines PepsiCo's Income Statement for the latest quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Our EPS target of $0.90 was on target.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement and the post-release conference call presentation [pdf].

09 February 2010

AAPL: Financial Gauge Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) earned $3.67 per diluted share in the quarter that ended 26 December 2009, which was the first quarter of the company's fiscal 2010.  Earnings increased from a restated $2.50 per share in the first quarter of fiscal 2009.

This post provides updated Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value metrics and our financial gauge scores for Apple.  The metrics were calculated using data in Apple's most recent 10-Q, the company's earlier financial reports, and its restated financial statements for the last three fiscal years.

We have already examined Apple's Income Statement for the December 2009 quarter.

06 February 2010

ADP: Income Statement Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP) earned $0.62 per share in the second quarter of fiscal 2010, which ended 31 December 2009.  This amount was 5 percent greater than the $0.59 per share earned one year earlier. 

If a favorable tax item in the latest quarter is excluded, earnings would only have increased $0.01 to $0.60 per share.

This post examines ADP's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Our target for Net Income in the latest quarter was $0.59 per share, which ADP exceeded by $0.03.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, the webcast presentation [pdf], and the conference call transcript (available from Seeking Alpha).

05 February 2010

BR: Income Statement Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

Broadridge Financial (NYSE: BR) earned $0.24 per diluted share in the second quarter of fiscal 2010, which ended 31 December 2009.  This result was 12 percent more profitable than earnings per share of $0.21 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Broadridge announced last November it will sell its securities clearing business to Penson Worldwide (NASDAQ: PNSN) and a related company for $60 million to $70 million.  This transaction is expected to close before fiscal 2010 concludes in June.  Broadridge has started to treat the results of the securities clearing business as a discontinued operation. 

Earnings from continuing operations (i.e., excluding the securities clearing) in the December quarter increased from $0.21 to $0.37 per share.

This post examines Broadridge's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Our target for Net Income in the latest quarter was $0.22 per share, which Broadridge exceeded by $0.02.

04 February 2010

CSCO: Income Statement Analysis for the January 2010 Quarter

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) earned $0.30 per share, on a GAAP basis, in fiscal 2010's second quarter, which on ended 23 January 2010.  This result was 23 percent more profitable than earnings per share of $0.26 in the same quarter of the previous year.

On a non-GAAP (i.e., "pro forma" or "ex-items") basis, Cisco's earnings per share rose from $0.32 to $0.40.  The main differences between GAAP and non-GAAP Net Income involved share-based compensation and amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets.

This post examines Cisco's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Our target for GAAP Net Income in the latest quarter was $0.32 per share.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, Chief Financial Officer Frank Calderoni's discussion of the results, and the conference call transcript (available from Seeking Alpha) and presentation [pdf].

03 February 2010

TDW: Income Statement Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

Tidewater (NYSE: TDW) earned $1.16 per diluted share in the quarter that ended 31 December 2009, which was the third quarter of Tidewater's fiscal 2010.  This result was 49 percent less profitable than the record-high $2.28 earned in the December 2008 quarter

This post examines Tidewater's Income Statement for the latest quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Our target for Net Income was $1.18 per share, $0.02 more than the reported amount.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, the post-release conference call (transcript available from Seeking Alpha), and the formal 10-Q report.

In a second article, we will report Tidewater's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges.  The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, GrowthProfitability and Value.


02 February 2010

BP: Income Statement Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

BP (NYSE: BP) earned $1.36 per diluted ADS in the quarter that ended 31 December 2009.  This fourth-quarter profit attributable to shareholders more than reversed the $1.07 loss per ADS in the same quarter of 2008.

This post examines BP's Income Statement for the latest quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.   Our target for BP's profit in the quarter was $1.52 per ADS, a substantial $0.16 less than the reported amount.

The principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, the financial statements (parts one and two), and the conference call presentation [pdf].

In a second article, we will report BP's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges. The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, GrowthProfitability and Value.

01 February 2010

PG Income Statement Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) earned $1.49 per diluted share -- $1.01 from continuing operations and $0.48 from discontinued operations -- in the quarter that ended 31 December 2009, which was the second quarter of P&G's fiscal 2010. 

An after-tax gain of $1.46 billion on the $2.8 billion sale of pharmaceuticals business to Warner Chilcott (NASDAQ: WCRX) provided most of the earnings from discontinued operations.

This post examines P&G's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates.  Our target for Net Income in the latest quarter was $1.43 per share, $0.06 less than the reported amount.

Our principal sources for the income statement analysis were the earnings announcement, the post-release conference call transcript from Seeking Alpha, and the formal 10-Q.

In a second article, we will report P&G's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges.  The follow-up post will provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.