In our earlier review of NVIDIA's Income Statement, we compared the actual results to our "look-ahead" estimates. Reported earnings were $0.02 per share better than the $0.21 per share we had forecast.
We have now updated the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value for NVIDIA. This post reports on the metrics and the associated financial gauge scores. The metrics were calculated using data from NVIDIA's current and historical financial statements, including the latest 10-Q report.
NVIDIA creates powerful Graphics Processing Units that rapidly perform the huge numbers of calculations required to produce hyper-realistic images for computers and video games. Additional background information about NVIDIA and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.
In summary, NVIDIA's latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the GCFR gauge scores:
- Cash Management: 18 of 25 (down from 19 in January)
- Growth: 20 of 25 (up from 6)
- Profitability: 22 of 25 (up from 12)
- Value: 3 of 25 (down from 4)
- Overall: 53 of 100 (up from 39)
The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary. Readers are encouraged to verify these figures and calculate others as they see fit using the filings available at the SEC's web site and elsewhere.
| Cash Management | 02 May 2010 | 31 Jan 2010 | 26 Apr 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Current Ratio | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| LTD/Equity | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Debt/CFO (years) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Inventory/CGS (days) | 55.7 | 63.4 | 87.1 | 68.8 |
| Finished Goods/Inventory | 54.7% | 56.3% | 63.2% | 55.7% |
| Days of Sales Outstanding (days) | 39.0 | 38.4 | 63.7 | 50.7 |
| Working Capital/Revenue | 42.2% | 43.0% | 52.7% | 43.0% |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Time (days) | 43.0 | 45.8 | 81.3 | 61.7 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 18 | 19 | 6 | 12 |
NVIDIA holds nearly $1.8 billion in Cash and Short-term Investments (up from $1.3 billion one year earlier).
The company doesn't have any significant Short-term or Long-term Debt. NVIDIA does have about $25 million in long-term capital lease obligations.
The decrease in the Cash Conversion Cycle Time signals significantly better cash flow efficiency.
The Days of Sales Outstanding inched up because Accounts Receivable increased from $375 million to $530 million at the end of the last quarter. This could be due to a sales surge at the end of the quarter, with customer payments expected early in the current quarter.
| Growth | 02 May 2010 | 31 Jan 2010 | 26 Apr 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Revenue growth | 24.8% | -2.9% | -33.4% | 17.8% |
| Revenue/Assets | 105.0% | 95.9% | 84.0% | 116.1% |
| Operating Profit growth | 16.2% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 21.4% |
| CFO growth | 38.2% | 95.6% | -78.0% | 150.5% |
| Net Income growth | N/A | N/A | N/A | 25.4% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 20 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
Revenue of $1.0 billion in the latest quarter was 50.8 percent more than in the comparable year-earlier quarter.
Revenue in the last year was 105 percent of Assets, up significantly from 84 percent last year. However, this ratio was over 130 percent as recently as 2008.
The CFO growth rate has been boosted by rising cash earnings and also by special charges that sapped the year-earlier amount. CFO in the latest quarter was slightly, but disappointingly, negative.
Net Income in the last four quarters is $271 million, certainly better performances than the $408 million lost in the previous four quarters. Like Cash Flow, the earlier figure for Net Income was undermined by special charges.
| Profitability | 02 May 2010 | 31 Jan 2010 | 26 Apr 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Operating Expenses/Revenue | 89.1% | 95.2% | 104.8% | 88.6% |
| ROIC | 34.7% | 12.5% | -11.3% | 44.0% |
| Free Cash Flow/Invested Capital | 25.1% | 38.6% | 1.9% | 50.4% |
| Accrual Ratio | 13.1% | -1.0% | -12.9% | 3.9% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 22 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
The earnings and cash flow returns on Invested Capital are back to healthy levels.
The increase in the Accrual Ratio is worth watching. It raises a question about whether Cash Flow from Operations has been strong enough to account for, and sustain, the reported earnings growth. In the latest quarter, CFO was negative $5 million, whereas reported Net Income was plus $138 million. CFO in the latest quarter was hurt by large increases in Inventory and Accounts Receivable. These rises may be temporary byproduct of accelerating sales; the figures, as discussed under Cash Management, are not unreasonable given the higher level of Revenue the company is now achieving.
| Value | 02 May 2010 | 31 Jan 2010 | 26 Apr 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| P/E | 34.3 | N/A | N/A | 25.6 |
| P/E vs. S&P 500 P/E | 1.9 | N/A | N/A | 1.5 |
| PEG | 2.1 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Price/Sales | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| Enterprise Value/Cash Flow (EV/CFO) | 22.2 | 14.9 | 20.0 | 18.3 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| Share Price ($) | $15.71 | $15.39 | $11.48 | - |
Although earnings and cash flow have improved, the trailing year metrics appears pricey to the Value gauge using the 2 May share price.
If we recalculate the metrics using the latest share price, the trailing-year P/E is trimmed to 29 and the trailing-year Price/Sales Ratio is cut to 2.1. The Value gauge score picks up three more points.
| Overall | 02 May 2010 | 31 Jan 2010 | 26 Apr 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Gauge Score (0 to 100) | 53 | 39 | 21 | 48 |
The recent revival in NVIDIA's performance has been recognized by the increases in the Growth and Profitability gauges. The Overall Gauge score moved up nicely, but it was limited by the Value gauge. If the earnings growth seen the last couple of quarters is sustained, and if the negative Cash Flow from Operations in the latest quarter proves to be temporary, the Value gauge could start to catch up.
Full disclosure: Long NVDA at time of writing.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment