INTC: Financial Gauge Analysis (Updated) for the September 2009 Quarter

We previously posted Intel Corporation's (NASDAQ: INTC) preliminary financial gauge scores for the third quarter of 2009.  To obtain those results, the financial statements in Intel's latest earnings announcement were used to calculate Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value metrics.

Intel later filed a more detailed 10-Q report, which included an updated Cash Flow statement.  We have now adjusted the metrics and scores to take advantage of the latest information.

The net effect of the changes was to trim two points each, compared to the preliminary estimates, from the Profitability and Overall gauge scores:

• Cash Management: 13 of 25 (unchanged from June)
  
• Growth: 1 of 25 (up from 0)
• Profitability: 9 of 25 (down from 10) -- initial estimate was 11
  
• Value: 0 of 25 (down from 3)

• Overall: 22 of 100 (down from 27) -- initial estimate was 24
  

For the record, current and historical figures for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below.  Numbers that changed from the preliminary analysis are highlighted.  Readers are encouraged to verify these figures and calculate others as they see fit using the filings available at the SEC's web site and elsewhere.

Cash Management	Sep 2009	Jun 2009	Sep 2008	5-yr Avg
Current Ratio	2.5	2.6	2.1	2.5
LTD/Equity	5.6%	3.0%	4.9%	4.1%
Debt/CFO (years)	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2
Inventory/CGS (days)	68.5	69.6	72.9	74.1
Finished Goods/Inventory	41.0%	43.2%	40.8%	37.4%
Days of Sales Outstanding (days)	26.5	23.5	25.8	29.7
Working Capital/Invested Capital	40.6%	39.8%	39.1%	43.4%
Cash Conversion Cycle Time (days)	40.5	44.7	47.4	55.9
Gauge Score (0 to 25)	13	13	13	11

Growth	Sep 2009	Jun 2009	Sep 2008	5-yr Avg
Revenue growth	-18.2%	-15.9%	7.4%	-3.1%
Revenue/Assets	63.2%	66.3%	75.8%	74.0%
Operating Profit growth	7.5%	4.8%	9.7%	-3.8%
CFO growth	-20.7%	-29.4%	8.2%	-2.2%
Net Income growth	-68.3%	-65.1%	18.1%	-14.2%
Gauge Score (0 to 25)	1	0	10	8

Revenue, CFO, and Net Income growth rates compare the last four quarters to the four previous quarters.
The Operating Profit rate is the annualized rate of growth in Operating Profit after Taxes over the last 16 quarters.

Cash Flow from Operations was quite a bit better in the third quarter than we had estimated.  However, a change from a 26 percent (estimated) to a 21 percent (actual) decline in Cash Flow is not going to add points to a gauge measuring Growth.

Profitability	Sep 2009	Jun 2009	Sep 2008	5-yr Avg
Operating Expenses/Revenue	79.6%	78.7%	72.2%	75.9%
ROIC	15.6%	15.9%	26.2%	23.3%
Free Cash Flow/Invested Capital	18.0%	13.6%	28.4%	10.8%
Accrual Ratio	-1.7%	-4.1%	0.6%	7.6%
Gauge Score (0 to 25)	9	10	22	12

As mentioned above, Cash Flow from Operations was greater than we had estimated.  This increased the Free Cash Flow to 18.0 percent and would have had a positive effect on the gauge score.

However, even more cash was used for Investing activities than we had thought.  This raised the Accrual Ratio (not good) from -5.1 percent to -1.7 percent, a significant increase.  Because the negative effects of the higher Accrual Ratio outweighed the positive benefits of the improved Free Cash Flow, the gauge score ended up two points lower than the 11 points we had initially estimated.

Value	Sep 2009	Jun 2009	Sep 2008	5-yr Avg
P/E	47.4	37.4	14.5	20.5
P/E vs. S&P 500 P/E	2.1	1.9	0.8	1.2
PEG	6.3	7.7	1.5	2.3
Price/Revenue	3.4	2.8	2.7	3.4
Enterprise Value/Cash Flow (EV/CFO)	9.6	8.5	7.4	19.1
Gauge Score (0 to 25)	0	3	15	9

The ratio of Intel's Price/Earnings ratio to the market multiple increased as a result of updates to S&P 500 index data.

We had estimated EV/CFO at 10.3, but better CFO lowered the ratio to 9.6.  The difference wasn't enough to add any points to the score.

Overall	Sep 2009	Jun 2009	Sep 2008	5-yr Avg
Gauge Score (0 to 100)	22	27	66	41

A two-point reduction in the Overall score is not especially significant.

The low score might be surprising given Intel's generally commendable third-quarter results.  However, the gauges are constructed to respond negatively when the latest four quarters compare unfavorably to previous periods.  The current trailing year includes the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 when the worldwide economy seized up, Intel's results suffered, the company was fined $1.447 billion by the European Commission for antitrust violations, and Intel wrote off $1 billion of its investment in Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR).

Lacking new shocks, year-to-year comparisons should soon become more favorable.  Investors appear to have been bidding up Intel shares in anticipation of a more positive results.  Intel's share price rose from as low as $12 earlier this year to about $20 at the end of the third quarter.




Full disclosure: Long INTC at time of writing.