Using the financial statements in the earnings announcement and the more detailed 10-Q, we have now updated a set of Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value metrics. This post reports on the metrics and the associated financial gauge scores.
In summary, P&G's latest quarterly results has produced the following changes to the gauge scores:
- Cash Management: 8 of 25 (up from 5 in June)
- Growth: 3 of 25 (up from 1)
- Profitability: 8 of 25 (up from 6)
- Value: 16 of 25 (down from 20)
- Overall: 43 of 100 (down from 44)
The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary.
| Cash Management | Sep 2009 | Jun 2009 | Sep 2008 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| LTD/Equity | 33.5% | 32.7% | 28.4% | 43.8% |
| Debt/CFO (years) | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Inventory/CGS (days) | 77.0 | 71.9 | 73.8 | 69.0 |
| Finished Goods/Inventory | 66.6% | 67.6% | 66.0% | 66.5% |
| Days of Sales Outstanding (days) | 31.5 | 29.3 | 32.0 | 30.2 |
| Working Capital/Invested Capital | -4.3% | -9.4% | -13.2% | -5.5% |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Time (days) | 49.6 | 38.8 | 57.0 | 52.8 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 8 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
P&G's Current Assets have been less than Current Liabilities, as seen in the Current Ratio below 1.0 and the negative Working Capital, for several years. This is still the case, but the difference between Current Assets and Liabilities improved to a more normal level in the latest quarter.
Current Liabilities are higher than what would normally be expected because of P&G's practice of having a substantial amount of its debt due in less than one year. Short-term debt, mostly likely commercial paper, has ranged between $12 billion and $22 billion since December 2006. In the September 2009 quarter, P&G took the positive step of cutting short-term debt from $16.3 billion to $13.0 billion.
Total Debt, including both short- and long-maturity paper, would now require 2.2 years of present Cash Flow from Operations to redeem. This is a nice reduction from recent quarters.
The increase in Inventory to Cost of Goods Sold appears due to anomalous Inventory spike one year ago, which gets included in the averages.
| Growth | Sep 2009 | Jun 2009 | Sep 2008 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Revenue growth | -6.8% | -4.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% |
| Revenue/Assets | 55.4% | 56.3% | 58.7% | 67.5% |
| Operating Profit growth | 6.8% | 9.6% | 19.0% | 13.6% |
| CFO growth | 5.3% | -0.6% | 11.2% | 17.4% |
| Net Income growth | -7.3% | -5.6% | 11.9% | 18.1% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 |
The worldwide recession, the once-stronger U.S. dollar, and divestitures (Folgers to Smucker plus pharmaceuticals to Warner Chilcott) weakened P&G's Revenues.
These factors have also cut into Cash Flow growth and Net Income growth.
A relatively good September quarter stemmed the declines and allowed the Growth gauge to pick up a couple of points. The nascent rebound still has a way to go.
| Profitability | Sep 2009 | Jun 2009 | Sep 2008 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Operating Expenses/Revenue | 79.3% | 79.7% | 79.8% | 80.1% |
| ROIC | 12.1% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| Free Cash Flow/Invested Capital | 13.2% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 14.1% |
| Accrual Ratio | -0.2% | 0.6% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
We may be seeing a modest, but encouraging, rebound in ROIC and (especially) FCF/IC.
The decrease in the Accrual Ratio is actually a positive development, signaling better earnings quality.
| Value | Sep 2009 | Jun 2009 | Sep 2008 | 5-Yr Avg |
| P/E | 13.4 | 11.8 | 18.3 | 19.9 |
| P/E vs. S&P 500 P/E | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| PEG | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Price/Revenue | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Enterprise Value/Cash Flow (EV/CFO) | 13.1 | 12.8 | 17.1 | 17.9 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 16 | 20 | 7 | 6 |
These gains have put some pressure on the Value gauge, although the shares do not (with the exception of PEG) appear to be expensive compared to this company's norms.
| Overall | Sep 2009 | Jun 2009 | Sep 2008 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Gauge Score (0 to 100) | 43 | 44 | 29 | 27 |
The Cash Management, Growth, and Profitability gauges each inched up, but these modest increases were balanced by a 4-point drop (hardly earthshaking) in the contrarian, but double-weighted Value gauge. P&G's results from the September quarter showed signs (e.g., much better-than-expected Gross Margin) of progress, and we would consider the shares appealing on pull back that would allow the Value gauge to regain a few of the points it recently shed.
Full disclosure: No position in PG at time of writing.
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