In our earlier review of ADP's Income Statement, we compared the actual results to our "look-ahead" estimates.
We have now updated the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value. This post reports on the metrics for ADP and the associated financial gauge scores. The metrics were calculated using data from ADP's current and historical financial statements, including the latest 10-Q report.
Automatic Data Processing performs payroll, tax, and other personnel-related Business Services for over 500,000 clients, large and small. ADP pays one of every six private sector employees in the United States. Additional background information about ADP and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.
In summary, ADP's latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:
- Cash Management: 10 of 25 (unchanged from December)
- Growth: 7 of 25 (up from 5)
- Profitability: 15 of 25 (down from 17)
- Value: 4 of 25 (down from 7) [8 of 25 using the latest share price]
- Overall: 36 of 100 (down from 43)
The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary.
| Cash Management | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Current Ratio (1) | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| LTD/Equity | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Debt/CFO (years) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Inventory/CGS (days) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Finished Goods/Inventory | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Days of Sales Outstanding (days) | 43.8 | 44.5 | 44.1 | 48.7 |
| Working Capital/Revenue (1) | 18.8% | 17.2% | 15.2% | 20.8% |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Time (days) | 34.7 | 35.2 | 34.7 | 35.1 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
ADP, one of few remaining of U.S. companies with a AAA bond rating, has a Balance Sheet that features $2.0 billion in Cash and Long-term Debt of only $41 million. The Current Ratio is over
The amount of Working Capital relative to Revenue is stable, as is the Cash Conversion Cycle Time
Days of Sales Outstanding seems to be trending lower, which is one indication of better cash efficiency.
| Growth | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Revenue growth | -1.1% | -2.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Revenue/Assets (1) | 103.0% | 103.5% | 105.5% | 91.9% |
| Operating Profit growth | 15.1% | 15.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% |
| CFO growth | 6.6% | -16.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% |
| Net Income growth | 11.8% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 14.3% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 7 | 5 | 14 | 10 |
1. Assets excludes Funds held for clients.
Trailing-year Revenue growth has been negative after each of the last three quarters, but the rate of contraction has been slight: -1 to -3 percent. High unemployment negatively affects sales of payroll and related services.
Given the sales weakness, ADP has done a good job keeping Revenue-to-Assets as high as they have. For this ratio, we exclude Client funds from Assets.
Under these circumstances, the Net Income and Operating Profit growth rates look quite healthy. However, some digging below the surface indicates that much of the Net Income growth can be attributed to settlements that reduced income taxes by $120 million in the June 2009 quarter. (This period will soon become part of the prior year in the trailing-year calculations.)
Similarly, the Cash Flow from Operations growth rate has fluctuated more than it would normally because of one-time events. These events include the tax settlement mentioned above and a $158.7 million tax refund received by a Canadian subsidiary of ADP.
| Profitability | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Operating Expenses/Revenue | 79.6% | 79.1% | 79.8% | 80.0% |
| ROIC | 33.4% | 34.4% | 30.6% | 27.6% |
| Free Cash Flow/Invested Capital | 41.8% | 37.9% | 38.4% | 37.2% |
| Accrual Ratio | 6.0% | -4.7% | -0.3% | -1.9% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 15 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
Operating Expenses have been stable when assessed on a trailing four quarters basis.
The high returns on Invested Capital are impressive, but they did benefit from the one-time events mentioned above. The fluctuations have made the Accrual Ratio less useful as a measure of earnings quality.
| Value | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| P/E | 16.6 | 16.0 | 14.6 | 18.6 |
| P/E vs. S&P 500 P/E | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| PEG | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Price/Sales | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.9 |
| Enterprise Value/Cash Flow (EV/CFO) | 12.0 | 12.8 | 10.1 | 13.2 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 4 | 7 | 17 | 8 |
| Share Price ($) | $44.47 | $42.82 | $35.16 | - |
Instead of using ADP's quarter-end share price -- our standard practice -- to calculate the Value gauge score, plugging in the $41.80 closing price on 14 May 2010 would lift the Value gauge back up to 8 points.
| Overall | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Gauge Score (0 to 100) | 36 | 43 | 59 | 45 |
In summary, the Cash Management and Profitability scores have remained stable during a period with economic headwinds for a company such as ADP. The Growth and Value scores weakened, although the Value gauge is already recovering.
Extra caution is warranted when assessing ADP. As mentioned above, one-time items over the last several quarters have temporarily boosted some of the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores.
Full disclosure: Long ADP at time of writing.
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