In our earlier review of Conoco's Income Statement, we compared the actual results to our "look-ahead" estimates.
We have now updated the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value. This post reports on the metrics for ConocoPhillips and the associated financial gauge scores. The metrics were calculated using data from Conoco's current and historical financial statements, including the latest 10-Q report.
ConocoPhillips is a large Integrated Oil and Gas company with global reach. Its market capitalization is over $80 billion, and its Revenue was almost $150 billion in 2009. The company was formed in 2002 when Conoco, Inc., merged with Phillips Petroleum. Additional background information about ConocoPhillips and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.
In summary, Conoco's latest quarterly results produced the following changes to the gauge scores:
- Cash Management: 14 of 25 (unchanged from December)
- Growth: 4 of 25 (up from 3)
- Profitability: 4 of 25 (up from 2)
- Value: 2 of 25 (up from 1)
- Overall: 21 of 100 (up from 16)
The current and historical values for the financial metrics that determine the gauge scores are listed below, with some brief commentary. Readers are encouraged to verify these figures and calculate others as they see fit using the filings available at the SEC's web site and elsewhere.
| Cash Management | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| LTD/Equity | 41.4% | 42.7% | 52.1% | 32.0% |
| Debt/CFO (years) | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Inventory/CGS (days) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Finished Goods/Inventory | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Days of Sales Outstanding (days) | 27.3 | 29.6 | 25.9 | 25.5 |
| Working Capital/Revenue | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.8% |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Time (days) | 2.2 | 1.3 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
Total Debt (long and short) reached a high of 2.9 years of Cash Flow from Operations in September 2009, when the energy prices and refining margins were especially weak. Debt is now 2.1 years of CFO.
A Google Finance stock screen indicates that ConocoPhillips has the fifth-highest Long-term Debt/Equity ratio among the 20 energy companies with the greatest market capitalization.
Current plans to sell assets, including half the company's stake in Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY), and trim capital spending would give Conoco the means to reduce its debt level further and improve its Morningstar single-A credit rating.
Conoco has a Current Ratio below 1.0, which translates into negative Working Capital. These figures might raise a liquidity concern for a smaller, weaker company; however, in Conoco's case it can be viewed as sign of efficient cash management. The company does not tie up more cash than necessary in low-yielding bank accounts.
| Growth | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Revenue growth | -24.6% | -38.0% | 7.8% | 1.8% |
| Revenue/Assets | 109.7% | 101.1% | 132.7% | 121.9% |
| Operating Profit growth | -11.7% | -16.0% | 6.4% | -4.7% |
| CFO growth | -24.1% | -44.9% | -26.0% | 4.9% |
| Net Income growth | N/A | N/A | N/A | 105.6% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
The Operating Profit rate is the annualized rate of growth in Operating Profit after Taxes over the last 16 quarters.
This assumes that Conoco's production will resume an upward trajectory as an improving economy in the U.S. increases demand for oil and gas. Production in the most recent quarter averaged 1.83 million barrel-of-oil equivalents per day, down 5 percent from the same period of 2009.
Cash Flow from Operations and Net Income have also started to rise. The Net Income growth rate is now N/A because the company had a large loss in the earlier period.
| Profitability | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Operating Expenses/Revenue | 93.7% | 94.2% | 89.4% | 89.1% |
| ROIC | 5.8% | 4.7% | 14.2% | 12.1% |
| Free Cash Flow/Invested Capital | 4.1% | 1.9% | -0.7% | 5.7% |
| Accrual Ratio | 0.8% | 1.2% | -14.5% | 0.6% |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 4 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
The Operating Margin improved with the latest quarterly results, but it is still 4.3 percent below its level one year earlier.
Free Cash Flow has benefited from a significant reduction in capital expenditures.
| Value | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| P/E | 13.5 | 17.4 | N/A | 8.9 |
| P/E vs. S&P 500 P/E | 0.8 | 0.9 | N/A | 0.5 |
| PEG | N/A | N/A | 10.0 | 0.9 |
| Price/Sales | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Enterprise Value/Cash Flow (EV/CFO) | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Gauge Score (0 to 25) | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 |
| Share Price ($) | $51.17 | $51.07 | $39.16 | - |
Earnings of $2.10 billion ($1.40 per share) quarter, in the March quarter, up from $800 million ($0.54 per share), reduced the trailing year Price to Earnings ratio. This reduction would tend to improve the Value gauge. However, in this case, the gauge barely stirred because the P/E is high compared to a 5-year average.
The P/E is also high compared to its typical multiple to the market.
| Overall | 31 Mar 2010 | 31 Dec 2009 | 31 Mar 2009 | 5-Yr Avg |
| Gauge Score (0 to 100) | 21 | 16 | 45 | 35 |
Although the Overall score is still very low, it ended a streak of five consecutive declines. Three of the category gauges showed small improvements.
It's hard for Conoco to look good when the year-earlier period included a stretch where energy prices and refining margins were much higher. The comparisons should start to improve soon. Reductions in Capital Spending and sales of "non-strategic" assets should also improve results going forward.
Full disclosure: Long COP at time of writing.
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